Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:27:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc8a5…6994 other 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$35 (-1%) realized −$36 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate26%11W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$18
sports 5% −$18
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -12.6% -20.9% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 42 -10.9% -19.3% 26% 7% -10.2%
all 42 -10.9% -19.3% 26% 7% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 7% -10.2%
10% -27.1% 2% -18.8%
15% -34.1% 0% -26.6%
20% -40.6% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses11 / 31
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)42 / 46
History coverage84d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $94 $94 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $107 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $107 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $225 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $228 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $114 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $234 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $255 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $404 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $388 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $122 $0 +0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $122 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $264 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $263 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $126 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $269 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 10 $2 −$1 -53%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 08 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $137 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $137 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $137 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $138 $0 -0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $143 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $142 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $144 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $144 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $144 $0 -0%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 26 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $277 $0 -0%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 25 $22 +$1 +6%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $138 $0 -0%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 20 $14 +$2 +14%
Bucks vs. 76ers Apr 13 $13 +$1 +7%
Heat vs. Wizards Apr 11 $12 +$1 +6%
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets Apr 09 $11 +$1 +8%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $9 +$2 +29%
Jazz vs. Thunder Apr 06 $8 $0 +4%
Jazz vs. Rockets Apr 04 $7 +$1 +11%
76ers vs. Wizards Apr 02 $7 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 28? Mar 29 $7 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $94 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $107 2h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $107 4d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $107 4d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $107 7d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $107 7d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $107 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $7 8d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $114 8d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $114 11d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $114 11d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $114 13d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $114 13d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $114 16d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 16d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $116 16d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $116 25d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $118 25d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $118 26d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $118 26d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $118 27d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $118 27d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $118 31d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $118 31d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $118 33d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $118 33d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $118 34d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $118 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.15 · official $101.15 (match) · 153 history records