Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:31:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc8a5…82bd other 121 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$68 (-0%) realized −$26 · open −$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate80%82W / 20L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$1,998now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$7
14 days+$12
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$19
world 29% −$125
politics 14% +$11
tech 10% +$12
economics 4% +$6
sports 3% +$2
finance 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.0% -7.7% 100% 0% -7.6%
≤30d 13 +2.3% -7.4% 100% 0% -7.7%
≤90d 102 -1.4% -10.8% 80% 2% -9.8%
all 102 -1.4% -10.8% 80% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 2% -9.8%
10% -19.4% 1% -18.4%
15% -27.2% 1% -26.3%
20% -34.3% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$10 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$1,998
Realized−$26
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses82 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions19
Markets (closed)102 / 121
History coverage82d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 92¢ 94¢ $352 $358 +$6 (+2%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $300 $306 +$6 (+2%)
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $160 $163 +$3 (+2%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $151 $152 +$1 (+1%)
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $98 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $98 $98 −$0 (-0%)
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? No 77¢ 100¢ $57 $74 +$16 (+28%)
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? No 96¢ 25¢ $107 $28 −$80 (-74%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 85¢ 80¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 82¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No 56¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $140 +$1 +1%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $193 +$6 +3%
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $100 +$1 +1%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 09 $142 +$4 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $200 +$2 +1%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 01 $119 +$4 +4%
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $510 +$5 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $300 +$3 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $200 +$2 +1%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 25 $160 +$11 +7%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 25 $156 +$5 +3%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $40 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 20 $200 $0 +0%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 18 $141 +$4 +3%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 15 $200 +$1 +0%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 14 $600 +$3 +0%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 11 $120 +$4 +3%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026? May 05 $100 −$2 -2%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? May 04 $1,000 +$2 +0%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 04 $100 +$2 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 02 $1,200 $0 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? May 01 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? May 01 $600 +$2 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? May 01 $700 +$3 +0%
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr May 01 $30 +$1 +2%
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control May 01 $20 $0 +2%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $199 +$1 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 29 $100 +$1 +1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $100 +$1 +1%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Apr 27 $60 +$1 +1%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Apr 27 $177 +$3 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Apr 25 $20 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 25 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 25 $88 +$1 +1%
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world Apr 21 $5 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $50 $0 +1%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Apr 20 $105 +$2 +2%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 19 $50 $0 +1%
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.5%? Apr 16 $108 +$2 +2%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 15 $50 $0 -0%
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? Apr 15 $30 −$9 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 15 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 13 $90 +$2 +2%
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Apr 13 $45 +$2 +4%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Apr 13 $29 +$2 +6%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Apr 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by April 30? Apr 12 $70 +$6 +9%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Apr 12 $30 +$1 +3%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Apr 12 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026? BUY No 98¢ $99 1h
Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $187 1h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 54¢ $11 2d
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 86¢ $47 5d
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 96¢ $67 6d
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 96¢ $40 7d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $101 7d
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 97¢ $106 7d
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL No 94¢ $7 8d
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $100 8d
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 96¢ $58 10d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $185 11d
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $101 11d
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 96¢ $29 12d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $140 12d
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 97¢ $42 17d
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 97¢ $100 18d
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $100 18d
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $200 18d
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? BUY No 99¢ $100 18d
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 18d
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $100 18d
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $120 19d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $200 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 99¢ $200 22d
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 96¢ $40 22d
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 97¢ $40 25d
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 96¢ $39 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,998.03 · official $1,998.03 (match) · 371 history records