Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:23:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C8
0xc8ab…6418
other · 249 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$223,174 -35%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$29,742 · open −$287,245
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$1,945,168
Realized+$29,742
Unrealized−$287,245
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses40 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions498
Markets (closed)70 / 249
Avg bet$2,592
Trades / day3437.0
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 498 History 70 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29,742
7 days+$29,742
14 days+$29,742
30 days+$29,742
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 85¢ $225,000 $382,725 +$157,725 (+70%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 91¢ 81¢ $272,575 $245,391 −$27,185 (-10%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $135,373 $136,857 +$1,485 (+1%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 15¢ $225,000 $67,275 −$157,725 (-70%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 89¢ 86¢ $67,088 $64,162 −$2,925 (-4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $47,305 $48,415 +$1,110 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 82¢ 66¢ $58,201 $47,485 −$10,715 (-18%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $39,689 $39,754 +$65 (+0%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? No 93¢ 92¢ $35,615 $35,424 −$191 (-1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 92¢ 80¢ $40,029 $34,779 −$5,251 (-13%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? No 92¢ 80¢ $38,459 $33,675 −$4,783 (-12%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? No 96¢ 95¢ $33,666 $33,372 −$295 (-1%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Yes 80¢ 74¢ $29,940 $27,892 −$2,048 (-7%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 95¢ 88¢ $27,919 $25,692 −$2,226 (-8%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? No 95¢ 94¢ $24,984 $24,630 −$354 (-1%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? No 90¢ 88¢ $23,531 $22,969 −$562 (-2%)
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? No 50¢ 62¢ $18,312 $22,576 +$4,264 (+23%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 67¢ 58¢ $24,834 $21,579 −$3,255 (-13%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 52¢ 52¢ $21,502 $21,233 −$270 (-1%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? No 83¢ 81¢ $14,923 $14,493 −$430 (-3%)
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 95¢ 93¢ $14,787 $14,468 −$318 (-2%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Yes 71¢ 80¢ $12,004 $13,691 +$1,687 (+14%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 87¢ 69¢ $16,547 $13,154 −$3,393 (-21%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 58¢ 32¢ $23,273 $12,931 −$10,342 (-44%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $12,875 $12,849 −$26 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $6,843 +$1,303 +19%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Jun 12 $16,638 +$179 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 12 $871 +$2,976 +342%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 12 $0 +$100 +50025%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 12 $152 $0 +0%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $1 +$4 +358%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $4 $0 +2%
Will Kylian Mbappe score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $51 +$3 +5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 12? Jun 12 $147 −$19 -13%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $4,652 +$5,459 +117%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $480 +$24 +5%
Will SpaceX raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO? Jun 12 $0 $0 +153%
Will Kylian Mbappe score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $69 −$64 -92%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $197 $0 -0%
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $36 $0 -0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 12? Jun 12 $56 −$5 -8%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $151 +$245 +162%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $88 $0 +0%
Will Valentín Barco be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 12 $2 $0 -2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $28,390 +$1,395 +5%
Will Lautaro Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 12 $19 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 12 $0 +$10 +4900%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $715 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $8 +$480 +6002%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 12 $810 +$860 +106%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
SpaceX IPO: Open Up/Down on Second Day Jun 12 $35 +$7 +20%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 12 $150 +$353 +235%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 12 $860 +$4,270 +496%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Jun 12 $80 +$9,346 +11682%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $31 +$187 +606%
Will Trump say "Georgia" 10+ times during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $124 +$1 +1%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $6 +$79 +1210%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 12 $110 +$2 +2%
Will Trump say "Citizenship" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $50 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Migrant Crime" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $50 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "College" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $50 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Star" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $50 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "State" 5+ times during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $41 $0 +0%
Will Meituan have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 +5%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $705 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $27 +$363 +1358%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $61 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$2 -47%
Will Trump say "Football" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.50 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -52%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $32 +$569 +1779%
Will Trump say "Dumocrat" or "Dumbocrat" or "Dumacrat" during Tele-Ral Jun 12 $57 −$56 -98%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $65 −$65 -100%
Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 12 $58 +$545 +940%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $4 +$171 +4098%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 12? Jun 11 $0 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 50% −$39,800
world 32% −$69,461
tech 9% +$3,589
politics 6% −$161,138
finance 3% +$9,400
sports 0% −$207
culture 0% +$5
weather 0% +$109
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $62 0m
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 82¢ $261 1m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $89 1m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $401 2m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $8 2m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $44 2m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $12 2m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $18 2m
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 300 ( BUY No 97¢ $9 3m
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 300 ( BUY No 97¢ $97 3m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $129 3m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $1,580 3m
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 3m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $181 4m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY No 87¢ $45 4m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $1,620 4m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $1,600 4m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $3 5m
Will Bret Johnsen be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' SELL Yes 95¢ $100 5m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $1,170 5m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $747 5m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $164 5m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $13 5m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $45 5m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $721 5m
Will Meta have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 5m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $362 5m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $698 5m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 67¢ $335 5m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 68¢ $201 5m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+327.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +373.0% +327.9% 57% 36% +17.9%
≤30d 70 +373.0% +327.9% 57% 36% +17.9%
≤90d 70 +373.0% +327.9% 57% 36% +17.9%
all 70 +373.0% +327.9% 57% 36% +17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3437.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +327.9% 36% +17.9%
10% +287.0% 33% +6.6%
15% ← realistic here +249.6% 33% -3.7%
20% +215.3% 33% -13.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,945,167.94 · official $1,946,840.53 (match) · 3500 history records