Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:29:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc8ad…83dc sports 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$40,625 (-78%) realized −$40,625 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -76% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -81% what you keep after slip
Net edge-81%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate11%4W / 33L
Whale WR10%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,401per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$796est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,988
7 days−$1,988
14 days−$1,988
30 days−$1,988
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$34,609
crypto 23% −$5,342
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-78.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 36 -75.1% -77.5% 11% 11% -80.8%
all 37 -75.8% -78.1% 11% 11% -81.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -78.1% 11% -81.5%
10% ← realistic here -80.2% 11% -83.3%
15% -82.1% 8% -84.9%
20% -83.9% 8% -86.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -79% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -76% · $-wt -80% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 10% (≥$1,677) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -50% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
21.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,187 vs −$1,355 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$40,625
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses4 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)10%
Est. fees paid−$796
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage91d
Avg bet$1,401
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Asuncion: Luciana Moyano vs Camila Romero Jun 26 $1,992 −$1,988 -100%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $993 −$974 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Katie Boulter vs Eva Lys May 06 $204 −$198 -97%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 05 $3,715 −$3,622 -98%
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Miomir Kecmanovic Apr 14 $995 −$970 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies Apr 11 $601 −$587 -98%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Delhi Capitals Apr 11 $1,994 −$1,964 -98%
Wuning: Fajing Sun vs Pavel Kotov Apr 11 $902 −$885 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 10 $69 −$69 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Joao Fonseca vs Alexander Zverev Apr 10 $990 −$972 -98%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Hubert Hurkacz Apr 09 $2,253 −$2,250 -100%
Campinas: Pedro Sakamoto vs Alvaro Guillen Meza Apr 08 $998 −$978 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 08 $490 −$471 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Apr 08 $499 −$495 -99%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Mumbai Indians Apr 07 $821 −$804 -98%
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Paula Badosa vs Lilli Tagger Apr 07 $258 −$252 -98%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez Apr 07 $139 −$135 -97%
Wuning: Daniil Ostapenkov vs Qian Sun Apr 07 $917 −$914 -100%
Rockets vs. Warriors Apr 06 $815 −$795 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 05 $1,452 −$1,377 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 05 $2,250 −$2,238 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 05 $601 +$632 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 05 $1,382 +$1,506 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 05 $463 −$463 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 05 $260 −$259 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 05 $234 −$178 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Apr 05 $1,595 −$1,588 -100%
Miyazaki: Liam Broady vs Harry Wendelken Apr 05 $1,677 +$2,390 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 03 $1,688 −$560 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 03 $884 +$219 +25%
Bucharest Open: Stefanos Sakellaridis vs Fabian Marozsan Apr 03 $999 −$96 -10%
Bucharest Open: Alexander Shevchenko vs Botic van de Zandschulp Apr 01 $765 −$751 -98%
San Luis Potosi: Alex Hernandez vs Nicolas Mejia Apr 01 $506 −$493 -98%
Bucharest Open: Gabi Boitan vs Elmer Moeller Mar 31 $2,986 −$2,985 -100%
Miyazaki: Carl Overbeck vs Ognjen Milic Mar 31 $2,504 −$2,504 -100%
Credit One Charleston Open: Eva Lys vs Katie Volynets Mar 30 $9,984 −$9,921 -99%
Miami Open: Alexander Zverev vs Jannik Sinner Mar 28 $1,962 −$1,962 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Asuncion: Luciana Moyano vs Camila Romero BUY Camila Romero 29¢ $145 1h
ITF Asuncion: Luciana Moyano vs Camila Romero BUY Camila Romero 30¢ $15 1h
ITF Asuncion: Luciana Moyano vs Camila Romero BUY Camila Romero 30¢ $2 1h
ITF Asuncion: Luciana Moyano vs Camila Romero BUY Camila Romero 30¢ $15 1h
ITF Asuncion: Luciana Moyano vs Camila Romero BUY Camila Romero 30¢ $15 1h
ITF Asuncion: Luciana Moyano vs Camila Romero BUY Camila Romero 30¢ $15 1h
ITF Asuncion: Luciana Moyano vs Camila Romero BUY Camila Romero 30¢ $15 1h
ITF Asuncion: Luciana Moyano vs Camila Romero BUY Camila Romero 30¢ $1,056 1h
ITF Asuncion: Luciana Moyano vs Camila Romero BUY Camila Romero 30¢ $6 1h
ITF Asuncion: Luciana Moyano vs Camila Romero BUY Camila Romero 30¢ $2 1h
ITF Asuncion: Luciana Moyano vs Camila Romero BUY Camila Romero 30¢ $2 1h
ITF Asuncion: Luciana Moyano vs Camila Romero BUY Camila Romero 30¢ $7 1h
ITF Asuncion: Luciana Moyano vs Camila Romero BUY Camila Romero 30¢ $15 1h
ITF Asuncion: Luciana Moyano vs Camila Romero BUY Camila Romero 30¢ $15 1h
ITF Asuncion: Luciana Moyano vs Camila Romero BUY Camila Romero 30¢ $15 1h
ITF Asuncion: Luciana Moyano vs Camila Romero BUY Camila Romero 30¢ $15 1h
ITF Asuncion: Luciana Moyano vs Camila Romero BUY Camila Romero 30¢ $15 1h
ITF Asuncion: Luciana Moyano vs Camila Romero BUY Camila Romero 30¢ $6 1h
ITF Asuncion: Luciana Moyano vs Camila Romero BUY Camila Romero 28¢ $1 1h
ITF Asuncion: Luciana Moyano vs Camila Romero BUY Camila Romero 28¢ $3 1h
ITF Asuncion: Luciana Moyano vs Camila Romero BUY Camila Romero 28¢ $1 1h
ITF Asuncion: Luciana Moyano vs Camila Romero BUY Camila Romero 27¢ $15 1h
ITF Asuncion: Luciana Moyano vs Camila Romero BUY Camila Romero 27¢ $33 1h
ITF Asuncion: Luciana Moyano vs Camila Romero BUY Camila Romero 27¢ $6 1h
ITF Asuncion: Luciana Moyano vs Camila Romero BUY Camila Romero 27¢ $14 1h
ITF Asuncion: Luciana Moyano vs Camila Romero BUY Camila Romero 27¢ $7 1h
ITF Asuncion: Luciana Moyano vs Camila Romero BUY Camila Romero 27¢ $5 1h
ITF Asuncion: Luciana Moyano vs Camila Romero BUY Camila Romero 27¢ $14 1h
ITF Asuncion: Luciana Moyano vs Camila Romero BUY Camila Romero 27¢ $5 1h
ITF Asuncion: Luciana Moyano vs Camila Romero BUY Camila Romero 27¢ $8 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 805 history records