Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:07:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C8 0xc8ad…b3ae crypto 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (260 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$322 (-7%) realized −$982 · open +$660
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate49%31W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day260.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,632now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$351
other 24% +$657
sports 8% −$103
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (260 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-33.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -26.3% -33.3% 49% 30% -20.4%
≤30d 63 -26.3% -33.3% 49% 30% -20.4%
≤90d 63 -26.3% -33.3% 49% 30% -20.4%
all 63 -26.3% -33.3% 49% 30% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover260.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.3% 30% -20.4%
10% ← realistic here -39.7% 21% -28.0%
15% -45.5% 11% -35.0%
20% -50.9% 6% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$29 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,632
Realized−$982
Unrealized+$660
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses31 / 32
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage1d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day260.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 39¢ 66¢ $972 $1,632 +$660 (+68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $27 −$18 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $9 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $11 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 22 $41 −$29 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 22 $96 −$45 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 22 $48 −$40 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$9 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 22 $93 −$86 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $92 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 22 $91 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $80 +$21 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET Jun 22 $104 −$64 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $101 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$36 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $80 +$21 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $74 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $162 −$34 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $101 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $61 +$39 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2PM ET Jun 22 $102 −$44 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $98 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $82 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 22 $82 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $70 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 22 $70 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 22 $112 +$19 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 22 $15 −$14 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 22 $33 −$18 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $109 −$24 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$19 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 22 $48 −$48 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $990 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 22? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $13 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $12 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,632.45 · official $1,632.45 (match) · 287 history records