Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:06:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C8 0xc8ae…f471 sports 336 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 118d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,117 (-1%) realized −$4,153 · open +$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate58%190W / 138L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$973per market
Trades / day27.9pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$6,937now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 118d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% +$11,661
world 30% +$783
crypto 12% −$6,462
other 6% +$5,349
politics 5% +$1,168
finance 2% −$91
tech 1% +$402
economics 0% +$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +55.1% +40.4% 100% 88% +22.9%
≤30d 17 +2.0% -7.7% 59% 47% +9.8%
≤90d 23 -8.8% -17.5% 52% 43% +6.3%
all 328 +21.0% +9.5% 58% 49% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.5% 49% -5.9%
10% -1.0% 40% -14.9%
15% ← realistic here -10.5% 31% -23.1%
20% -19.3% 24% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +41% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$395 vs −$451 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$6,937
Realized−$4,153
Unrealized+$36
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses190 / 138
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions8
Markets (closed)328 / 336
History coverage118d ⚠
Avg bet$973
Trades / day27.9
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 328 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 81¢ 80¢ $2,500 $2,448 −$52 (-2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $1,500 $1,492 −$8 (-1%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 80¢ 88¢ $750 $830 +$80 (+11%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 66¢ 70¢ $631 $674 +$43 (+7%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 88¢ 88¢ $500 $497 −$3 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $496 $493 −$3 (-1%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $303 $285 −$19 (-6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 63¢ 62¢ $221 $219 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $800 +$333 +42%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $993 +$95 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $505 +$263 +52%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $457 +$536 +117%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $340 +$148 +43%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $627 +$713 +114%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $425 +$203 +48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $4,000 +$631 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $170 −$50 -29%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 217.5 May 25 $254 −$8 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $390 +$20 +5%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 24 $228 −$228 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $253 −$11 -4%
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31? May 24 $279 −$279 -100%
Foreign intervention in Gaza by March 31? May 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 24 $254 −$250 -99%
Brand Risk Promotions 14: Johnny Manziel vs. Bob Menery May 24 $1,063 +$266 +25%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 02 $2,112 +$353 +17%
O/U 3.5 Rounds Mar 22 $88 −$88 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Mar 22 $273 −$273 -100%
Will Dominican Republic win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 22 $900 −$900 -100%
Nuggets vs. Lakers Mar 22 $1,434 +$2,092 +146%
BNP Paribas Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Jannik Sinner Mar 22 $655 −$655 -100%
Will Drake officially release Iceman by March 31, 2026? Mar 17 $646 +$1,126 +174%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Mar 15 $250 +$61 +24%
Will Lululemon Athletica (LULU) beat quarterly earnings? Mar 15 $361 −$16 -4%
Avalanche vs. Jets Mar 15 $640 −$640 -100%
Suns vs. Raptors Mar 15 $969 −$969 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Jose Miguel Delgado (Featherweight, Pr Mar 15 $1,000 +$522 +52%
UFC Fight Night: Harry Hardwick vs. Marwan Rahiki (Featherweight, Main Mar 15 $500 +$184 +37%
UFC Fight Night: Vitor Petrino vs. Steven Asplund (Heavyweight, Prelim Mar 15 $2,104 +$590 +28%
UFC Fight Night: Luan Lacerda vs. Hecher Sosa (Bantamweight, Prelims) Mar 14 $819 +$438 +54%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 14 $872 −$18 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? Mar 14 $1,247 −$330 -26%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Mar 14 $9,305 −$22 -0%
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31? Mar 14 $2,200 −$44 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 14 $8,372 −$401 -5%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Mar 13 $5,210 +$807 +16%
Celtics vs. Thunder Mar 13 $410 −$410 -100%
Nuggets vs. Spurs Mar 13 $3,410 −$3,410 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Jack Draper vs Daniil Medvedev Mar 13 $855 −$855 -100%
Predators vs. Canucks Mar 13 $450 +$456 +101%
Will Dollar Tree (DLTR) beat quarterly earnings? Mar 13 $972 +$301 +31%
Bucks vs. Heat Mar 13 $2,136 +$861 +40%
Suns vs. Pacers Mar 13 $1,968 +$549 +28%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 12 $3,808 +$231 +6%
Will Arman Tsarukyan win against Muhammed Mokaev? Mar 12 $1 −$1 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Novak Djokovic vs Jack Draper Mar 12 $2,696 −$2,696 -100%
Will Dollar General (DG) beat quarterly earnings? Mar 12 $618 +$150 +24%
Rockets vs. Nuggets Mar 12 $512 +$263 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $500 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $1,500 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $221 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $993 11h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $800 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $768 13h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 99¢ $994 13h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 45¢ $457 13h
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $488 14h
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? BUY Yes 69¢ $340 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $505 15h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $500 15h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $1,340 16h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 46¢ $627 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $425 24h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $1,500 25h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $168 25h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 31h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $110 31h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 32h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $11 32h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 33h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 33h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 33h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 33h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 34h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 35h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 80¢ $756 35h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 66¢ $646 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $1,000 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,937.34 · official $6,937.34 (match) · 3500 history records