Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:21:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C8 0xc8af…613f weather 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%16W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 57% +$1
crypto 28% $0
world 7% +$1
other 5% $0
tech 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 8 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 16 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 0% -9.3%
10% -17.8% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses16 / 0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)16 / 20
History coverage175d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on April 16? Jun 20 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 25? Jun 20 $38 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $39 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C on April 8? Apr 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of March? Apr 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on April 1? Mar 31 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 26? Mar 26 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 65°F or below on March 19? Mar 19 $37 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on February 28? Mar 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb Feb 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will Paramount+ be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 1 Feb 20 $19 $0 +0%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026? Jan 22 $11 $0 +3%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 17, 2026? Jan 22 $24 $0 +1%
Lighter Airdrop on December 28? Jan 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $400 before 2026? Jan 04 $134 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $43 21h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $39 6d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $38 27d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $33 66d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $24 75d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on April 1? BUY No 100¢ $29 81d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $29 88d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 65°F or below on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $37 94d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $5 104d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $13 104d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $9 108d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on February 28? BUY No 100¢ $1 113d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb BUY No 100¢ $13 114d
Will Paramount+ be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 1 BUY No 100¢ $19 128d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $11 151d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $12 152d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $12 152d
Will Solana reach $400 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $134 173d
Lighter Airdrop on December 28? BUY No 100¢ $1 175d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.96 · official $121.96 (match) · 36 history records