trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 100% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 100% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤90d | 8 | +0.2% | -9.3% | 100% | 0% | -9.3% |
| all | 16 | +0.4% | -9.1% | 100% | 0% | -9.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.1% | 0% | -9.3% |
| 10% | -17.8% | 0% | -17.9% |
| 15% | -25.8% | 0% | -25.9% |
| 20% | -33.0% | 0% | -33.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 21? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $43 | $43 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 22? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $32 | $32 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 20? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $3 | $3 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on April 16? | Jun 20 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 25? | Jun 20 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 15? | Jun 14 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C on April 8? | Apr 07 | $24 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? | Apr 01 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of March? | Apr 01 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on April 1? | Mar 31 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 26? | Mar 26 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Miami be 65°F or below on March 19? | Mar 19 | $37 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on February 28? | Mar 01 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb | Feb 28 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Paramount+ be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 1 | Feb 20 | $19 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026? | Jan 22 | $11 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 17, 2026? | Jan 22 | $24 | $0 | +1% |
| Lighter Airdrop on December 28? | Jan 04 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Solana reach $400 before 2026? | Jan 04 | $134 | $0 | +0% |