Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:57:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C8 0xc8b2…9891 crypto 533 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (117 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,561 (+6%) realized +$1,561 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate65%345W / 188L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day117.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,089
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (117 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 533 +8.1% -2.2% 65% 65% -5.8%
≤30d 533 +8.1% -2.2% 65% 65% -5.8%
≤90d 533 +8.1% -2.2% 65% 65% -5.8%
all 533 +8.1% -2.2% 65% 65% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover117.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.2% 65% -5.8%
10% ← realistic here -11.6% 65% -14.8%
15% -20.1% 55% -23.0%
20% -28.0% 42% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$51 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,561
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses345 / 188
Open positions0
Markets (closed)533 / 533
History coverage6d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day117.4
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 533 Trades
no open positions (188 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 18 $76 +$24 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$20 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 18 $33 +$17 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 18 $38 −$37 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 18 $33 +$17 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $11 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $28 −$27 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 18 $39 +$11 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 18 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $8 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $7 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $76 −$75 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 18 $73 +$27 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $71 +$29 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $49 −$47 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $78 +$22 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $57 +$28 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$4 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $22 +$28 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$18 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$18 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$19 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$19 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $42 +$25 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$27 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $92 −$90 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $36 +$23 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $46 +$23 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $73 −$71 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $69 +$75 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $36 +$33 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $77 +$45 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $71 −$71 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $76 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $30 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $30 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $33 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $38 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $33 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $76 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $73 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $71 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $49 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $78 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $57 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $20 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $22 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $27 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $32 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $32 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $25 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $31 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1043 history records