trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -64.5% | -67.9% | 0% | 0% | -76.8% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -30.0% | -36.7% | 20% | 20% | -59.5% |
| ≤90d | 5 | -30.0% | -36.7% | 20% | 20% | -59.5% |
| all | 10 | -44.6% | -49.9% | 20% | 10% | -45.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -49.9% | 10% | -45.1% |
| 10% | -54.7% | 10% | -50.3% |
| 15% | -59.1% | 10% | -55.1% |
| 20% | -63.1% | 10% | -59.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 5¢ | $79 | $82 | +$3 (+4%) |
| Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? | Yes | 13¢ | 12¢ | $25 | $24 | −$1 (-4%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 24 | $41 | −$12 | -29% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 19 | $75 | −$73 | -97% |
| Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? | Jun 16 | $307 | −$265 | -86% |
| UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) | Jun 15 | $507 | −$500 | -99% |
| Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? | Jun 15 | $155 | +$256 | +165% |
| Will Paradex launch a token by February 28, 2026? | Feb 18 | $550 | −$550 | -100% |
| Lighter Airdrop on December 29? | Dec 26 | $50 | −$1 | -3% |
| Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the | Dec 26 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Kodiak FDV above $25M one day after launch? | Dec 23 | $1,228 | +$78 | +6% |
| Kodiak FDV above $50M one day after launch? | Dec 23 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |