Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:43:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C8 0xc8b8…d073 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 183d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,162 (-37%) realized −$1,164 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate20%2W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$262per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$84
14 days−$594
30 days−$594
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$578
sports 16% −$500
politics 10% −$265
crypto 8% +$258
tech 3% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-49.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -64.5% -67.9% 0% 0% -76.8%
≤30d 5 -30.0% -36.7% 20% 20% -59.5%
≤90d 5 -30.0% -36.7% 20% 20% -59.5%
all 10 -44.6% -49.9% 20% 10% -45.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.9% 10% -45.1%
10% -54.7% 10% -50.3%
15% -59.1% 10% -55.1%
20% -63.1% 10% -59.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$167 vs −$190 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

183d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized−$1,164
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses2 / 8
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage183d
Avg bet$262
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $79 $82 +$3 (+4%)
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $41 −$12 -29%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $75 −$73 -97%
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? Jun 16 $307 −$265 -86%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $507 −$500 -99%
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? Jun 15 $155 +$256 +165%
Will Paradex launch a token by February 28, 2026? Feb 18 $550 −$550 -100%
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? Dec 26 $50 −$1 -3%
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the Dec 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Kodiak FDV above $25M one day after launch? Dec 23 $1,228 +$78 +6%
Kodiak FDV above $50M one day after launch? Dec 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $30 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $29 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $75 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $41 8d
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? SELL Yes $42 8d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $507 9d
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $410 9d
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $25 54d
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 54d
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 54d
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $103 54d
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $52 54d
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $100 57d
Will Paradex launch a token by February 28, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $25 125d
Will Paradex launch a token by February 28, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $25 125d
Will Paradex launch a token by February 28, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $500 126d
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? SELL No 38¢ $49 179d
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the BUY Yes 86¢ $50 179d
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the BUY Yes 83¢ $50 179d
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? BUY No 39¢ $50 179d
Kodiak FDV above $25M one day after launch? SELL Yes 86¢ $513 182d
Kodiak FDV above $25M one day after launch? SELL Yes 88¢ $264 182d
Kodiak FDV above $25M one day after launch? SELL Yes 88¢ $176 182d
Kodiak FDV above $25M one day after launch? SELL Yes 88¢ $176 182d
Kodiak FDV above $25M one day after launch? SELL Yes 88¢ $88 182d
Kodiak FDV above $25M one day after launch? SELL Yes 88¢ $88 182d
Kodiak FDV above $25M one day after launch? BUY Yes 83¢ $200 182d
Kodiak FDV above $25M one day after launch? BUY Yes 82¢ $200 182d
Kodiak FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 182d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.86 · official $105.86 (match) · 42 history records