Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:25:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc8b9…df04 other 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate45%25W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$2
other 25% +$3
politics 11% −$1
crypto 9% $0
finance 5% $0
sports 2% $0
tech 2% $0
weather 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 -0.6% -10.1% 50% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 10 -0.6% -10.1% 50% 0% -9.9%
all 55 +0.4% -9.2% 45% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 4% -9.8%
10% -17.9% 2% -18.4%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses25 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage470d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $45 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $4 $0 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $82 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $67 −$3 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $45 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 25 $39 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $30 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 24 $44 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $2 $0 -9%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 22 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 28 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Jun 24 $7 −$1 -14%
Will Iran declare war on Israel by Friday? Jun 22 $2 $0 +2%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2025 French Open? Jun 03 $5 $0 +1%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2025 French Open? May 26 $2 $0 +9%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? May 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 25 $18 $0 -1%
Will Wei Yi win the 2025 Chess.com Classic tournament? May 20 $9 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 9–16? May 13 $11 $0 -1%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Denmark finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Starmer out before July? May 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in Epstein files? May 07 $1 $0 -4%
Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April? May 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Sebastian-Constantin Popescu advance to the Romanian Presidential May 07 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Browns draft Shedeur Sanders? Apr 21 $4 $0 +0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the Northwest Territories seat in th Apr 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2400 in April? Apr 20 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 50,000-100,000 betwee Apr 12 $15 $0 -3%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 11 $15 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 10 $15 $0 -0%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Apr 06 $14 $0 +1%
Will Trump impose a blanket tariff of 30-40% on the EU by June 30? Apr 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Mar 31 $14 $0 +0%
Will Kentucky win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 30 $13 +$2 +13%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 27 $12 $0 -1%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 26 $1 $0 +33%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $13 $0 +1%
Will 'Opus' gross between 3-5m on opening weekend? Mar 15 $13 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his DOJ appearance on Frid Mar 14 $13 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $45 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $45 3h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $0 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $4 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $44 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $42 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 70¢ $42 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 70¢ $42 22d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $39 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $39 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $24 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $6 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $8 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $18 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $42 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $42 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 35¢ $11 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 35¢ $11 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 39¢ $25 24d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $44 25d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $44 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 61¢ $1 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 61¢ $33 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 61¢ $5 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 63¢ $13 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 163 history records