Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:06:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C8
0xc8b9…b836
politics · 228 markets active 2h ago
2.5score
+$156,426 +24%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$91,739 · open +$41,949
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY politics specialist⚠ High turnover
Net worth$208,881
Realized+$91,739
Unrealized+$41,949
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses133 / 67
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Open positions29
Markets (closed)200 / 228
History coverage125d
Avg bet$2,914
Trades / day25.8
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit57%
Chart Positions 29 History 200 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days+$7,615
14 days+$13,787
30 days+$15,663
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 72¢ 96¢ $108,890 $146,556 +$37,666 (+35%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 94¢ 99¢ $11,496 $12,055 +$559 (+5%)
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? No 91¢ 100¢ $8,233 $8,991 +$758 (+9%)
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? No 86¢ 94¢ $7,603 $8,338 +$735 (+10%)
Will Larry Rhoden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election? Yes 47¢ 45¢ $5,195 $4,970 −$225 (-4%)
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? No 44¢ 82¢ $2,527 $4,739 +$2,211 (+87%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? No 89¢ 98¢ $3,353 $3,675 +$322 (+10%)
Will Cyndi Munson win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 90¢ 96¢ $2,433 $2,603 +$170 (+7%)
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 34¢ 43¢ $1,795 $2,219 +$424 (+24%)
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 15%+? No 87¢ 100¢ $1,697 $1,954 +$256 (+15%)
Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senate election? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $1,849 $1,894 +$45 (+2%)
Will Chad Bianco finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in Los Angeles County? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,826 $1,845 +$19 (+1%)
Will Tom Begich advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? Yes 85¢ 96¢ $1,521 $1,724 +$202 (+13%)
Will Tracie Burke be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana? No 97¢ 100¢ $1,504 $1,549 +$45 (+3%)
Will Jocelyn Benson win the 2026 Michigan Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 87¢ 96¢ $913 $997 +$84 (+9%)
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 0–5%? No 94¢ 98¢ $918 $956 +$38 (+4%)
Will Rob Adkerson be the Republican nominee for GA-11? Yes 33¢ 26¢ $958 $755 −$203 (-21%)
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 10–15%? No 92¢ 100¢ $644 $696 +$52 (+8%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in Los Angeles County? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $604 $604 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bruce Walden advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? No 90¢ 96¢ $495 $528 +$33 (+7%)
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in San Francisco City and County? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $444 $440 −$5 (-1%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election by more than 10%? No 94¢ 97¢ $311 $321 +$11 (+3%)
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 5–10%? Yes 41¢ 97¢ $98 $233 +$134 (+137%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election by 5–10%? Yes 20¢ $1,127 $172 −$955 (-85%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 33¢ 44¢ $25 $32 +$8 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jared Golden be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Jermaine Johnson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic Jun 10 $1,680 +$215 +13%
Will Mallory Dittmer be the Democratic nominee for SC-05? Jun 10 $2,481 +$179 +7%
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima Jun 09 $33 −$32 -98%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 08 $1,049 −$951 -91%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 06 $5,760 +$9,440 +164%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 05 $10,205 −$1,227 -12%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 04 $6,086 −$1,128 -18%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 04 $26,123 +$1,154 +4%
Will Adam Gray advance from the CA-13 primary election? Jun 04 $333 +$17 +5%
Will Jason Gibbs advance from the CA-27 primary election? Jun 04 $5,645 +$360 +6%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 03 $5,760 +$3,684 +64%
Will Jon Hansen win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary Jun 03 $0 $0 -94%
Will Doug Turner win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary e Jun 03 $2,888 −$2,849 -99%
Will Justin Murphy be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey? Jun 03 $233 +$89 +38%
Will Deb Haaland win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Democratic primary e Jun 03 $660 +$28 +4%
Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary elec Jun 03 $15,937 +$1,837 +12%
Will Zach Lahn win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election? Jun 03 $792 +$1,311 +166%
Will Momentum win the third-most seats in the House of Representatives Jun 01 $875 +$1,670 +191%
Will Gregor Heise be the Republican Nominee for TX-30? May 27 $2,940 +$69 +2%
Will Sholdon Daniels be the Republican Nominee for TX-30? May 27 $336 −$336 -100%
Will Tom Sell be the Republican Nominee for TX-19? May 27 $2,976 +$2,458 +83%
Who will finish higher: Norris or Piastri? May 25 $10 +$23 +233%
Who will finish higher: Ocon or Bearman? May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Who will finish higher: Colapinto or Gasly? May 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Mike Thurmond win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary el May 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Jason Esteves win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary el May 20 $2,169 −$2,169 -100%
Will Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic pri May 19 $1,600 +$423 +26%
Will Jorge Nieto win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential May 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian president May 17 $762 +$524 +69%
Will Italy be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $2,527 −$2,527 -100%
Will Greece be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $791 +$8 +1%
Will Italy be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $699 −$699 -100%
Will Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1,437 +$14 +1%
Will Bulgaria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $420 +$22 +5%
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in second place in the first round of the May 16 $281 −$281 -100%
Will George Forsyth finish in third place in the first round of the 20 May 16 $1,653 +$90 +6%
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? May 16 $3,497 −$1,771 -51%
Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff? May 16 $7,353 +$1,081 +15%
Will Jorge Nieto finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 May 16 $10,983 +$2,125 +19%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in fourth place in the first round of May 16 $14,246 +$504 +4%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in fourth place in the first roun May 16 $1,378 +$161 +12%
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in fourth place in the first round of the May 16 $11,981 +$2,159 +18%
Will José Williams finish in fourth place in the first round of the 20 May 16 $1,128 +$32 +3%
Will Rachel Anderson be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West Virg May 13 $1 +$1,335 +96210%
Will Zachary Shrewsbury be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West V May 13 $983 −$983 -100%
Will Jeffrey Kessler be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West Virg May 13 $540 +$8,446 +1564%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect May 11 $10,410 +$1,989 +19%
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by less tha May 09 $1,103 −$1,103 -100%
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 6-9%? May 09 $983 +$1,077 +110%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 84% +$104,208
other 16% +$28,300
crypto 0% +$1,055
world 0% +$132
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary SELL No 100¢ $32 1h
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima BUY Yes 34¢ $1,837 16h
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri BUY No 33¢ $25 17h
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima BUY Yes 33¢ $2 18h
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima BUY Yes 33¢ $2 18h
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima BUY Yes 33¢ $2 18h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $724 40h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $489 40h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $146 40h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $148 40h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $47 40h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $157 40h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $72 40h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $754 40h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $114 40h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $22 40h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $22 41h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $132 41h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $149 41h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,034 41h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $207 41h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $17 41h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $3,772 41h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $17 41h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $157 41h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,573 41h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $299 41h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $149 41h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $7,544 41h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $94 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+33.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -16.6% -24.6% 43% 29% +23.0%
≤30d 44 -6.6% -15.5% 61% 34% -0.4%
≤90d 102 +36.6% +23.6% 65% 38% +6.0%
all 200 +47.2% +33.2% 66% 36% +11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover25.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +33.2% 36% +11.8%
10% +20.4% 26% +1.1%
15% ← realistic here +8.8% 23% -8.7%
20% -1.9% 22% -17.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $208,881.05 · official $208,881.05 (match) · 3500 history records