Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:44:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C8 0xc8bd…af61 crypto 177 markets active 2h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$665 (+14%) realized +$665 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%90W / 87L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$392
14 days+$450
30 days+$577
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$541
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +42.4% +28.8% 67% 67% +36.3%
≤30d 144 +14.6% +3.7% 53% 53% +2.8%
≤90d 177 +8.9% -1.5% 51% 51% +1.0%
all 177 +8.9% -1.5% 51% 51% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.5% 51% +1.0%
10% -10.9% 51% -8.7%
15% -19.5% 51% -17.5%
20% -27.4% 51% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$26 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$665
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses90 / 87
Open positions0
Markets (closed)177 / 177
History coverage46d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 177 Trades
no open positions (87 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 18 $36 +$37 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $36 +$40 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $36 +$35 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $36 +$34 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $36 +$34 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $36 +$38 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $36 +$51 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $36 +$47 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$6 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $37 +$76 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $36 +$43 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $36 +$36 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $36 +$39 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $36 +$51 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$14 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $36 +$47 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $36 +$34 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $36 +$35 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $36 +$35 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $36 +$66 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $36 +$37 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $36 +$33 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 10 $32 +$45 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $36 +$39 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 09 $36 +$37 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 09 $36 +$40 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 09 $35 −$33 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 09 $36 +$34 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 09 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 08 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 08 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 08 $36 +$40 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 08 $36 −$35 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $36 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $36 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $36 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $36 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $36 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $36 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $36 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $36 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $36 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $36 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $36 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $36 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $37 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $36 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $36 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $36 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $36 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $36 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $36 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $36 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $36 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $36 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 270 history records