Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:20:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C8 0xc8c6…1462 other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$435 (+21%) realized +$453 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%5W / 10L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day31.0pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$992now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$528
other 49% −$127
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -10.7% -19.2% 33% 33% +26.2%
≤30d 15 -10.7% -19.2% 33% 33% +26.2%
≤90d 15 -10.7% -19.2% 33% 33% +26.2%
all 15 -10.7% -19.2% 33% 33% +26.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.2% 33% +26.2%
10% ← realistic here -27.0% 33% +14.2%
15% -34.0% 33% +3.1%
20% -40.5% 33% -7.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +40% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -63% → late +35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$16 · ×7.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.7 per $1 lost it wins $3.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$992
Realized+$453
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses5 / 10
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions12
Markets (closed)15 / 27
History coverage1d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day31.0
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $500 $496 −$4 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Under 69¢ 68¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $152 −$7 -4%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $152 +$126 +83%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $152 +$174 +114%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $152 +$148 +97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $10 +$30 +291%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $152 +$98 +65%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $152 −$9 -6%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 3 Jordan? Jun 16 $10 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Algeria? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 31m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 55¢ $145 32m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 33m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 40m
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 44m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 46m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $203 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $151 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $152 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 2h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 2h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 7h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 7h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 8h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 55¢ $143 16h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 3 Jordan? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $152 17h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $152 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $152 17h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $152 17h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $152 17h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 17h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 17h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Algeria? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 17h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $992.11 · official $992.20 (match) · 36 history records