Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:01:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc8c8…b949 sports 690 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$268 (+2%) realized +$155 · open +$113
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%321W / 360L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Fees−$143est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$503now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$110
7 days+$197
14 days+$92
30 days+$346
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$49
other 12% +$96
world 6% +$41
crypto 2% +$60
finance 1% −$87
weather 0% −$39
politics 0% +$5
economics 0% −$1
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 125 +2.7% -7.0% 51% 51% -6.3%
≤30d 302 +3.7% -6.2% 51% 51% -6.5%
≤90d 681 -10.8% -19.3% 47% 45% -9.5%
all 681 -10.8% -19.3% 47% 45% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 45% -9.5%
10% -27.1% 42% -18.1%
15% -34.1% 31% -26.0%
20% -40.6% 21% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$12 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$503
Realized+$155
Unrealized+$113
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses321 / 360
Est. fees paid−$143
Open positions9
Markets (closed)681 / 690
History coverage66d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 681 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 16¢ 98¢ $41 $250 +$209 (+510%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Over 67¢ 100¢ $44 $65 +$21 (+49%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Over 79¢ 100¢ $44 $56 +$12 (+27%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Yes 80¢ 100¢ $44 $55 +$11 (+25%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $43 $41 −$2 (-4%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 53¢ 42¢ $43 $34 −$9 (-22%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 22¢ 1¢ $43 $3 −$40 (-94%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? No 77¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 81¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 16 $44 −$44 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $45 +$65 +146%
Set 1 Winner: Dart vs Boulter Jun 16 $46 −$2 -3%
Bu vs. Virtanen: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $45 −$1 -2%
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter Jun 16 $45 −$1 -2%
Harriet Dart vs. Katie Boulter: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $46 −$2 -3%
Set Handicap: Bu (-1.5) vs Virtanen (+1.5) Jun 16 $45 −$1 -2%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $44 +$17 +40%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $44 +$14 +31%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $44 +$14 +32%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $45 +$12 +27%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $44 +$18 +42%
Buse vs. Jodar: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $46 −$2 -3%
Set 1 Winner: Buse vs Jodar Jun 15 $45 −$1 -2%
Set Handicap: Buse (-1.5) vs Jodar (+1.5) Jun 15 $46 −$2 -3%
Nottingham Open: Emma Raducanu vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 15 $45 −$1 -2%
Raducanu vs. Pliskova: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $46 −$2 -3%
Set Handicap: Bejlek (-1.5) vs Navarro (+1.5) Jun 15 $46 −$2 -3%
Nottingham 2: Alastair Gray vs Tristan Schoolkate Jun 15 $45 −$1 -2%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Emma Navarro Jun 15 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $44 +$17 +40%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $44 +$17 +40%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $44 +$11 +24%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 15 $43 +$26 +60%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $45 +$37 +83%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 15 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $45 +$39 +86%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $45 +$14 +32%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $44 +$11 +24%
Set Handicap: Olivieri (-1.5) vs Shevchenko (+1.5) Jun 14 $46 −$1 -3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $45 +$10 +23%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $44 +$12 +27%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $45 +$53 +119%
Nottingham Open: Iva Jovic vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 14 $45 −$1 -2%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja Jun 14 $42 +$5 +12%
Polina Kudermetova vs. Sinja Kraus: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $46 −$2 -3%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar Jun 14 $45 −$1 -2%
Set 1 Winner: Montgomery vs Krejcikova Jun 14 $45 −$1 -2%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 14 $43 +$27 +63%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Coco Gauff Jun 14 $45 −$1 -2%
Nikola Bartunkova vs. Coco Gauff: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $46 −$2 -3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $44 +$18 +42%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $45 +$26 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $44 0m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 80¢ $44 46m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $44 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $44 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $44 1h
Set Handicap: Bu (-1.5) vs Virtanen (+1.5) BUY Bu 50¢ $45 3h
Bu vs. Virtanen: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 50¢ $45 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $44 5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $44 6h
Harriet Dart vs. Katie Boulter: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 51¢ $46 6h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $44 7h
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter BUY Harriet Dart 50¢ $45 8h
Set 1 Winner: Dart vs Boulter BUY Dart 51¢ $46 8h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $45 8h
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 78¢ $45 9h
Set Handicap: Buse (-1.5) vs Jodar (+1.5) BUY Buse 51¢ $46 11h
Set 1 Winner: Buse vs Jodar BUY Buse 50¢ $45 11h
Buse vs. Jodar: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $46 11h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Tommy Paul 70¢ $44 13h
Raducanu vs. Pliskova: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $46 14h
Set Handicap: Bejlek (-1.5) vs Navarro (+1.5) BUY Bejlek 51¢ $46 14h
Nottingham 2: Alastair Gray vs Tristan Schoolkate BUY Alastair Gray 50¢ $45 14h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $44 15h
Nottingham Open: Emma Raducanu vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Karolina Pliskova 50¢ $45 15h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Emma Navarro BUY Sara Bejlek 50¢ $45 16h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 75¢ $44 22h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 71¢ $44 23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 40¢ $45 24h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $44 25h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $44 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $503.02 · official $503.02 (match) · 1716 history records