Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:46:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C8 0xc8ca…5ecb sports 145 markets active 2h ago coverage 596d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$144 (+1%) realized +$149 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate52%75W / 69L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$179now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$131
politics 12% +$98
other 4% −$59
tech 0% −$1
crypto 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 144 -5.0% -14.1% 52% 45% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 45% -8.2%
10% -22.3% 40% -17.0%
15% -29.8% 37% -25.0%
20% -36.7% 31% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$28 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

596d coverage
Net worth$179
Realized+$149
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses75 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)144 / 145
History coverage596d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 87¢ 84¢ $184 $179 −$5 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? Nov 10 $596 +$12 +2%
Pistons vs. 76ers Nov 10 $20 −$9 -45%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $569 +$34 +6%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $60 +$11 +18%
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays Nov 01 $25 +$10 +40%
Rockets vs. Thunder Oct 22 $440 −$440 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 22 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on Octobe Oct 22 $20 −$1 -4%
Texans vs. Seahawks Oct 21 $20 +$12 +59%
Jets vs. Flames Oct 21 $20 +$14 +72%
Buccaneers vs. Lions Oct 21 $20 −$18 -90%
Mariners vs. Blue Jays Oct 21 $120 −$100 -83%
Falcons vs. 49ers Oct 20 $20 +$14 +72%
Patriots vs. Titans Oct 20 $20 +$6 +32%
Saints vs. Bears Oct 20 $20 +$9 +45%
Colts vs. Chargers Oct 20 $20 +$23 +117%
Panthers vs. Jets Oct 20 $40 +$37 +92%
Rams vs. Jaguars Oct 19 $20 +$13 +64%
Mariners vs. Blue Jays Oct 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 18 $10 −$6 -59%
Brewers vs. Dodgers Oct 18 $20 +$11 +56%
Blue Jays vs. Mariners Oct 18 $41 +$43 +104%
Bruins vs. Golden Knights Oct 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Blues Oct 16 $20 +$19 +96%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Gen.G (BO1) Oct 16 $20 +$8 +38%
Flames vs. Utah Oct 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Blue Jays vs. Mariners Oct 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Warriors vs. Trail Blazers Oct 15 $20 +$10 +48%
Dodgers vs. Brewers Oct 15 $20 +$17 +85%
Penguins vs. Ducks Oct 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Steelers vs. Bengals Oct 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Dodgers vs. Brewers Oct 14 $20 +$14 +70%
Mariners vs. Blue Jays Oct 14 $40 +$27 +68%
Avalanche vs. Sabres Oct 14 $20 +$12 +61%
Jets vs. Islanders Oct 14 $20 +$17 +85%
Bills vs. Falcons Oct 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Utah vs. Blackhawks Oct 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Panthers vs. Flyers Oct 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Lightning vs. Bruins Oct 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-13? Oct 13 $20 +$15 +75%
Will the price of Solana be above $190 on October 13? Oct 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Broncos vs. Jets Oct 13 $20 +$6 +28%
Browns vs. Steelers Oct 13 $20 +$8 +41%
Cubs vs. Brewers Oct 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Georgia vs. Auburn Oct 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Phillies vs. Dodgers Oct 10 $20 +$16 +82%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Oct 10 $40 −$9 -22%
Brewers vs. Cubs Oct 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Missouri State vs. Middle Tennessee Oct 09 $20 +$17 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $185 1h
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? SELL Yes 95¢ $608 221d
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? BUY Yes 93¢ $62 222d
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? BUY Yes 93¢ $65 222d
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? BUY Yes 93¢ $449 222d
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? BUY Yes 95¢ $20 222d
Pistons vs. 76ers SELL 76ers 23¢ $11 222d
Pistons vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 42¢ $20 222d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) SELL KT Rolster 40¢ $22 223d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 36¢ $20 223d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL Yes 100¢ $603 227d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes 91¢ $71 228d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) SELL T1 100¢ $71 230d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) BUY T1 85¢ $60 230d
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays SELL Blue Jays 15¢ $35 231d
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays BUY Blue Jays $5 231d
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays BUY Blue Jays 15¢ $20 231d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes 94¢ $499 238d
Rockets vs. Thunder BUY Rockets 56¢ $38 241d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 34¢ $19 241d
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on Octobe SELL Yes 80¢ $19 241d
Rockets vs. Thunder BUY Rockets 78¢ $402 241d
Jets vs. Flames SELL Jets 100¢ $34 242d
Buccaneers vs. Lions SELL Buccaneers $2 242d
Jets vs. Flames BUY Jets 58¢ $20 242d
Mariners vs. Blue Jays SELL Blue Jays 27¢ $10 242d
Mariners vs. Blue Jays BUY Mariners 73¢ $100 242d
Mariners vs. Blue Jays BUY Blue Jays 54¢ $20 243d
Falcons vs. 49ers SELL 49ers 100¢ $34 243d
Texans vs. Seahawks BUY Seahawks 63¢ $20 243d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.55 · official $178.55 (match) · 313 history records