Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:09:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc8cc…2e39 sports 968 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$644 (+3%) realized +$644 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate59%564W / 398L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day20.5pace
Fees−$127est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$155
7 days+$197
14 days+$203
30 days+$215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$449
other 24% +$155
crypto 1% −$22
world 0% +$24
finance 0% −$2
politics 0% +$1
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 +6.9% -3.3% 48% 43% -0.2%
≤30d 187 +1.5% -8.2% 57% 48% -4.7%
≤90d 452 -1.9% -11.3% 58% 48% -7.3%
all 962 -1.5% -10.9% 59% 50% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 50% -6.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 37% -15.8%
15% -27.2% 26% -23.9%
20% -34.3% 19% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$644
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses564 / 398
Est. fees paid−$127
Open positions1
Markets (closed)962 / 968
History coverage133d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day20.5
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 962 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India Australia 70¢ 69¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $75 −$4 -5%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 28 $33 +$27 +81%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $42 +$35 +83%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $29 −$29 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Texas Super Kings Jun 28 $25 +$1 +2%
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $14 +$5 +33%
Major League Cricket: Mi New York vs Los Angeles Knight Riders Jun 28 $80 +$8 +10%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands Jun 27 $61 +$2 +3%
Major League Cricket: Mi New York vs Texas Super Kings Jun 27 $17 −$17 -100%
Mohamed Salah: 2+ assists Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Seattle Orcas Jun 27 $60 −$31 -52%
Mohamed Salah: 2+ goals Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $102 −$102 -100%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $36 −$1 -2%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $33 +$9 +26%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland Jun 26 $16 +$4 +25%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 26 $19 −$19 -100%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 26 $13 −$13 -100%
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India Jun 26 $14 +$8 +60%
Will England win? Jun 26 $26 +$22 +88%
Omar Marmoush: 1+ goals Jun 26 $10 −$1 -7%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Ryan Gravenberch: 1+ assists Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ assists Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Alexander Isak: 1+ assists Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Brian Brobbey: 2+ goals Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Cody Gakpo: 2+ goals Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Crysencio Summerville: 2+ goals Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ assists Jun 26 $3 +$15 +550%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $60 +$39 +66%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $40 +$39 +99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $45 +$28 +62%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings Jun 25 $16 +$6 +37%
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ assists Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ assists Jun 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Jun 25 $10 +$17 +171%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $18 +$20 +112%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$6 +60%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals Jun 24 $10 +$70 +679%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $26 −$1 -3%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $15 +$10 +66%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $34 +$6 +19%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland Jun 23 $14 +$6 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY Australia 70¢ $49 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 89¢ $71 1h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $60 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $75 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 77¢ $76 1h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $19 1h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 56¢ $13 1h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 56¢ $1 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 AND Algeria vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY 29¢ $5 2h
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Texas Super Kings SELL Texas Super Kings 45¢ $26 2h
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 63¢ $19 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 3h
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $14 3h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $42 3h
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Texas Super Kings BUY Texas Super Kings 44¢ $7 3h
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Texas Super Kings BUY Texas Super Kings 44¢ $3 3h
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Texas Super Kings BUY Texas Super Kings 44¢ $14 3h
Major League Cricket: Mi New York vs Los Angeles Knight Riders SELL Mi New York 100¢ $50 4h
Major League Cricket: Mi New York vs Los Angeles Knight Riders BUY Mi New York 93¢ $42 4h
Major League Cricket: Mi New York vs Los Angeles Knight Riders BUY Mi New York 93¢ $5 4h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $29 5h
Major League Cricket: Mi New York vs Los Angeles Knight Riders SELL Los Angeles Knight Riders 77¢ $21 6h
Major League Cricket: Mi New York vs Los Angeles Knight Riders SELL Los Angeles Knight Riders 77¢ $10 6h
Major League Cricket: Mi New York vs Los Angeles Knight Riders BUY Los Angeles Knight Riders 71¢ $28 6h
Major League Cricket: Mi New York vs Los Angeles Knight Riders SELL Los Angeles Knight Riders 75¢ $6 6h
Major League Cricket: Mi New York vs Los Angeles Knight Riders SELL Los Angeles Knight Riders 75¢ $1 6h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $14 7h
Major League Cricket: Mi New York vs Los Angeles Knight Riders BUY Los Angeles Knight Riders 54¢ $5 7h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands SELL Netherlands 20¢ $7 17h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands SELL Pakistan 57¢ $57 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.64 · official $48.65 (match) · 3137 history records