Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:02:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc8ce…2320 other 159 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate8%13W / 145L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$16
politics 35% −$15
sports 8% +$27
crypto 5% −$2
economics 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 1% −$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 122 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 158 -0.7% -10.1% 8% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 4% -9.5%
10% -18.7% 3% -18.2%
15% -26.6% 2% -26.1%
20% -33.8% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×10.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses13 / 145
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)158 / 159
History coverage117d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $387 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 21 $56 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $29 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $32 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $24 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $36 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $19 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $25 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $32 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $245 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $185 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $28 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $36 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $36 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $625 −$1 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $34 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $212 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $169 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $170 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $411 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $186 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 21 $173 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 19 $405 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $190 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 18 $593 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $801 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 15 $162 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 13 $187 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $358 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $209 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $367 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 12 $200 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $206 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $167 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $176 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $166 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $349 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $176 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $415 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 03 $203 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $161 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 02 $205 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $216 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $69 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $156 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $211 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $36 1h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $36 5h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $34 5h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $34 25h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $34 46h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $34 6d
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $30 6d
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $30 7d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $29 9d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $29 10d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 12d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 12d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $24 12d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $24 12d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 13d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 13d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $19 14d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 14d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 14d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 15d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $19 15d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 15d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $32 16d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $32 17d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 17d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 17d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $21 18d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $21 19d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.99 · official $24.99 (match) · 480 history records