trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 6 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 33% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤90d | 6 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 33% | 0% | -9.5% |
| all | 21 | +14.1% | +3.3% | 48% | 14% | -3.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +3.3% | 14% | -3.2% |
| 10% | -6.6% | 10% | -12.5% |
| 15% | -15.6% | 5% | -20.9% |
| 20% | -23.9% | 5% | -28.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 90¢ | $37 | $37 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 19 | $63 | $0 | -0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 18 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 26 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab | May 26 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | May 25 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | May 24 | $31 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 09 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 09 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Jun 24 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 2–9? | May 09 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? | Mar 20 | $5 | $0 | +1% |
| Sacred Heart vs. Manhattan | Mar 05 | $271 | −$144 | -53% |
| Hawks vs. Grizzlies | Mar 05 | $64 | +$204 | +317% |
| Villanova vs. Georgetown | Mar 03 | $64 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump say 'Hamas' during the 2025 State of the Union? | Mar 03 | $6 | +$1 | +11% |
| New Hampshire vs. Bryant | Mar 03 | $61 | $0 | +0% |
| Mississippi State vs. Alabama | Mar 03 | $52 | +$15 | +28% |
| Mercer vs. East Tennessee State | Feb 26 | $52 | $0 | +0% |
| Indiana State vs. Murray State | Feb 25 | $52 | $0 | +0% |
| Gonzaga vs. Santa Clara | Feb 25 | $59 | −$8 | -13% |
| Japan prime minister Ishiba out in 2025? | Feb 24 | $60 | −$1 | -1% |