Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:28:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C8 0xc8d2…e1f8 crypto 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$234 (-52%) realized −$234 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate58%22W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$236
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -11.0% -19.5% 56% 35% -16.3%
≤30d 35 -10.3% -18.9% 57% 37% -12.8%
≤90d 37 -9.1% -17.8% 59% 38% -7.6%
all 38 -11.5% -19.9% 58% 37% -78.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 37% -78.1%
10% -27.6% 32% -80.2%
15% -34.6% 29% -82.1%
20% -41.0% 29% -83.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -76% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$16 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$234
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses22 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage103d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Down 50¢ 58¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 24 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7AM ET Apr 08 $15 +$1 +8%
XRP Up or Down - March 17, 2AM ET Apr 07 $13 +$2 +16%
XRP Up or Down on March 5? Mar 05 $371 −$238 -64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.17 · official $1.17 (match) · 73 history records