Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:54:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C8 0xc8d6…21ca crypto 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$78 (+8%) realized +$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%20W / 23L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% +$469
other 14% −$63
sports 10% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+36.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +50.9% +36.5% 47% 47% +33.2%
≤30d 43 +50.9% +36.5% 47% 47% +33.2%
≤90d 43 +50.9% +36.5% 47% 47% +33.2%
all 43 +50.9% +36.5% 47% 47% +33.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +36.5% 47% +33.2%
10% +23.5% 44% +20.5%
15% +11.5% 42% +8.8%
20% +0.6% 40% -1.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +47% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +51% · $-wt +47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +115% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$18 · ×2.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.06 per $1 lost it wins $2.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses20 / 23
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)43 / 45
History coverage6d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Over 39¢ 40¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 40¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $105 +$191 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$99 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$74 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$67 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $58 +$44 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$27 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$132 +1241%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$74 +701%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$25 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$2 +12%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 +$37 +244%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$12 +114%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $8 +$8 +97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$5 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$6 +307%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $13 +$31 +235%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +52%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $10 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $10 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $15 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $5 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.13 · official $20.13 (match) · 75 history records