Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:47:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc8d8…21c3 other 250 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$78 (-0%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%9W / 240L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$230per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$17
14 days−$30
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$42
sports 27% −$20
politics 9% −$10
culture 5% −$6
economics 5% −$4
crypto 3% −$4
world 3% −$2
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 70 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 179 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 249 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses9 / 240
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)249 / 250
History coverage138d
Avg bet$230
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 249 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $151 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $125 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 18 $642 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $503 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $459 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $245 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $321 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $474 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $424 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $863 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $233 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $304 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $282 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $655 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $291 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $532 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $254 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $456 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $199 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $141 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $130 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 14 $147 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $163 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $591 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $221 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $229 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $373 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $366 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $575 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $624 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $487 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $402 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $336 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $390 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $846 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $163 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $239 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $141 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $150 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $351 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $159 −$1 -1%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $438 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $696 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $152 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $228 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $214 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $446 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $155 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $60 1h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $60 1h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $60 3h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $60 7h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $60 8h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $60 14h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $60 16h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $49 20h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 21h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $61 23h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $61 25h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $61 35h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $61 37h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 39h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 41h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $61 45h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $61 47h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $61 2d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 2d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $61 2d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $61 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $61 2d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $61 2d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $62 3d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $62 3d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $62 3d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $62 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.03 · official $60.03 (match) · 1414 history records