Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:19:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C8 0xc8d8…e72d sports 874 markets active 23h ago coverage 224d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,954 (-4%) realized −$1,954 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%328W / 543L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$349est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 224d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$3,903
other 39% −$595
crypto 1% +$62
culture 0% −$223
world 0% −$57
weather 0% +$28
politics 0% −$9
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -20.0% -27.7% 34% 34% -38.6%
≤30d 222 -12.3% -20.7% 34% 33% -25.3%
≤90d 592 -6.0% -14.9% 39% 39% -14.3%
all 871 -11.8% -20.2% 38% 37% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 37% -19.5%
10% -27.9% 36% -27.2%
15% -34.8% 34% -34.3%
20% -41.2% 32% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$42 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,954
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses328 / 543
Est. fees paid−$349
Open positions0
Markets (closed)871 / 874
History coverage224d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 871 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $86 −$84 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $236 −$231 -98%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 15 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $80 +$81 +101%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $121 −$120 -99%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $43 −$43 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $177 −$174 -98%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $40 −$39 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $83 −$83 -99%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $49 −$48 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $66 −$65 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $61 −$34 -56%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $45 +$50 +113%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $77 −$76 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $32 −$31 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $17 +$82 +468%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 +$40 +79%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $28 +$20 +72%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $26 +$23 +87%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $49 +$35 +71%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $24 +$16 +65%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $26 +$24 +96%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $53 −$52 -97%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $47 −$47 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$5 -97%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $44 +$32 +72%
Ché Adams: 1+ goals Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$49 -97%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 13 $23 −$22 -98%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 13 $12 −$2 -13%
Igor Thiago: 1+ goals Jun 13 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $11 −$10 -98%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $20 +$9 +46%
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals Jun 13 $14 −$13 -98%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 13 $32 +$29 +91%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Jun 13 $61 −$11 -18%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 13 $5 −$2 -41%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $43 −$42 -98%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $44 +$7 +17%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos Jun 13 $9 −$8 -97%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $45 +$25 +55%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Michael Mmo Jun 13 $19 +$17 +89%
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pr Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pri Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $86 22h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 27¢ $50 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $50 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $81 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $56 2d
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $161 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 48¢ $80 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $22 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $98 2d
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY No 43¢ $16 2d
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY No 43¢ $27 2d
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY No 43¢ $6 2d
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY No 43¢ $7 2d
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $15 2d
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $7 2d
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $21 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $100 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 2d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $23 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $68 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $34 3d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $17 3d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 49¢ $49 3d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $49 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $66 3d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 9¢ $10 3d
Sweden leading at halftime? SELL Yes 83¢ $95 3d
Sweden leading at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $45 3d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 17¢ $24 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2164 history records