Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:36:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C8 0xc8e0…f9c0 crypto 305 markets active 2h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$311 (-4%) realized −$310 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate26%79W / 223L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$36
14 days−$36
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$874
politics 1% +$16
other 0% −$36
economics 0% −$20
world 0% −$7
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -66.3% -69.5% 25% 25% -55.9%
≤30d 4 -66.3% -69.5% 25% 25% -55.9%
≤90d 30 -43.2% -48.6% 33% 30% -25.6%
all 302 -19.8% -27.5% 26% 23% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.5% 23% -20.7%
10% -34.4% 20% -28.3%
15% -40.7% 18% -35.3%
20% -46.6% 16% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$16 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$310
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses79 / 223
Open positions3
Markets (closed)302 / 305
History coverage144d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 302 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 38¢ 44¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-41%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 37¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 214 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 27 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$9 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 27 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 07 $6 −$4 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 07 $11 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 01 $6 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 01 $4 −$4 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Mar 31 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Mar 31 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Mar 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Mar 31 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Mar 31 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Mar 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Mar 30 $8 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Mar 30 $54 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Mar 30 $283 −$25 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Mar 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 30 $17 −$8 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 30 $14 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 30 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Mar 30 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Mar 30 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 30 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Mar 30 $2 +$2 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Mar 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Mar 30 $16 +$20 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 28 $6 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Mar 28 $2 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Mar 28 $3 −$2 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Mar 28 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Mar 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Mar 28 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Mar 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Mar 28 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Mar 28 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Mar 27 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Mar 27 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Mar 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Mar 27 $2 +$3 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Mar 27 $2 +$3 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Mar 27 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Mar 25 $1 +$4 +300%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Mar 25 $3 +$3 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $4 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $2 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $6 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $5 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $4 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $6 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $0 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $0 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $4 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $3 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.80 · official $9.80 (match) · 1512 history records