Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:26:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C8 0xc8e2…69e8 other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$379 (-30%) realized −$369 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$240now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% −$435
sports 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -17.4% -25.3% 50% 50% -47.9%
≤30d 8 -17.4% -25.3% 50% 50% -47.9%
≤90d 8 -17.4% -25.3% 50% 50% -47.9%
all 8 -17.4% -25.3% 50% 50% -47.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.3% 50% -47.9%
10% -32.4% 50% -52.9%
15% -39.0% 50% -57.4%
20% -44.9% 12% -61.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$153 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$240
Realized−$369
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage16d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 48¢ 44¢ $150 $140 −$10 (-6%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $126 −$126 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $472 −$472 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $210 +$102 +49%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $111 +$46 +42%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $11 −$8 -77%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $11 −$6 -54%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $21 +$13 +64%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 21 $52 +$20 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 67¢ $105 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $106 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $53 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $126 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $105 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $315 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $105 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $157 4d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $52 4d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 4d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $11 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $31 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $27 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $52 15d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $21 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $239.62 · official $239.62 (match) · 23 history records