Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:02:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc8e4…08cc crypto 515 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,317 (-3%) realized −$2,317 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate92%475W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$162per market
Trades / day69.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 42d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,343
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 +3.4% -6.4% 94% 34% -5.4%
≤30d 447 -0.4% -9.9% 91% 34% -9.0%
≤90d 515 +0.9% -8.7% 92% 34% -8.1%
all 515 +0.9% -8.7% 92% 34% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 34% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 0% -16.9%
15% -25.4% 0% -24.9%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$172 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,317
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses475 / 40
Open positions0
Markets (closed)515 / 515
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$162
Trades / day69.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 515 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $95 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $227 +$23 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 18 $205 +$45 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $231 +$19 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $230 +$20 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $242 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $217 +$32 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $219 +$31 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $467 +$33 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $231 +$19 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $44 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $379 +$21 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $241 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $242 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $192 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $242 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $243 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $176 +$15 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $231 +$19 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $187 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $230 −$230 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $231 +$19 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $56 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $380 +$70 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $218 +$32 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $243 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $231 +$19 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $230 +$20 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $229 +$21 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $450 +$50 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $29 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $241 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $243 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $242 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $208 +$31 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $230 +$20 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $230 +$20 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $231 +$19 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $169 +$31 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $464 +$36 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $48 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $48 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $18 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $46 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records