Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:44:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc8ea…7f8d sports 288 markets active 2h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,681 (+6%) realized +$1,666 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%66W / 218L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$263est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$219now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$150
7 days+$1,476
14 days+$1,304
30 days+$976
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$150
other 41% +$996
politics 2% −$31
crypto 2% −$54
world 2% −$40
finance 0% −$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -72.1% -74.8% 17% 17% +23.6%
≤30d 60 -28.6% -35.4% 17% 17% +5.0%
≤90d 279 -13.2% -21.5% 24% 23% -13.5%
all 284 -14.5% -22.6% 23% 23% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.6% 23% -14.6%
10% -30.0% 21% -22.7%
15% -36.8% 20% -30.2%
20% -43.0% 19% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$224 vs −$64 · ×3.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$219
Realized+$1,666
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses66 / 218
Est. fees paid−$263
Open positions4
Markets (closed)284 / 288
History coverage106d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 284 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the match end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $150 $160 +$10 (+7%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $20 $30 +$10 (+52%)
Will Eric Cole win the 2026 Travelers Championship? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $21 $19 −$2 (-10%)
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 Travelers Championship? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $14 $10 −$4 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 180 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $54 −$53 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Netherlands Jun 25 $36 −$35 -97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Bangladesh Jun 25 $43 −$42 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -95%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $153 −$150 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland Jun 23 $24 −$23 -98%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $3,228 +$1,712 +53%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $314 +$256 +82%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -97%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 19 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Corey Conners win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $47 −$45 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $24 +$264 +1116%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $75 −$73 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 04 $69 −$68 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 04 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 04 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 04 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 04 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 04 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 04 $26 +$46 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 04 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 04 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 04 $26 −$15 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 04 $22 −$11 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 04 $32 +$94 +299%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 04 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 04 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 04 $26 −$10 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 04 $16 +$32 +201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 04 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 04 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 04 $22 −$21 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 04 $11 +$72 +681%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $148 +$447 +302%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 03 $183 −$180 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $31 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 Travelers Championship? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 Travelers Championship? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 1h
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 Travelers Championship? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Will the match end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $153 1h
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 Travelers Championship? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 Travelers Championship? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 1h
Will Eric Cole win the 2026 Travelers Championship? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 29¢ $54 18h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 3¢ $5 24h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 3¢ $5 24h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 3¢ $26 24h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 4¢ $8 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 28h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 4¢ $10 28h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 4¢ $21 28h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 4¢ $4 28h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies BUY West Indies 18¢ $51 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies BUY West Indies 18¢ $51 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $31 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $102 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $10 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $10 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $10 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $10 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $10 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland BUY Ireland 17¢ $10 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland BUY Ireland 16¢ $13 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $219.40 · official $219.40 (match) · 1135 history records