Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:09:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C8 0xc8eb…6b20 crypto 1744 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$19 (+0%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate98%1708W / 36L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day31.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$6
14 days+$7
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 181 +0.4% -9.2% 98% 2% -9.2%
≤30d 985 +0.6% -9.0% 98% 4% -9.1%
≤90d 1744 +0.5% -9.0% 98% 4% -9.1%
all 1744 +0.5% -9.0% 98% 4% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 4% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 1% -17.8%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$7 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses1708 / 36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1744 / 1744
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day31.9
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1744 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $8 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $8 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $8 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $8 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $8 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $8 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $8 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $11 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records