Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:11:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C8 0xc8eb…19ca crypto 90 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$38 (-3%) realized −$39 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%28W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$70
14 days−$70
30 days−$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% +$30
other 20% −$71
sports 3% −$28
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 +2.6% -7.1% 33% 31% -14.6%
≤30d 84 +2.6% -7.1% 33% 31% -14.6%
≤90d 84 +2.6% -7.1% 33% 31% -14.6%
all 84 +2.6% -7.1% 33% 31% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 31% -14.6%
10% -16.0% 27% -22.7%
15% -24.1% 27% -30.2%
20% -31.6% 25% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$10 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses28 / 56
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)84 / 90
History coverage12d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 22? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 22? Yes 18¢ 17¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 11¢ 27¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+145%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 15¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 21 $31 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 21 $57 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$15 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 21 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$29 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$18 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $57 +$45 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$8 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 20 $30 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$22 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$21 +398%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$5 -48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$15 +152%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1 +$5 +510%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$20 +374%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$14 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$8 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $19 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 22? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.98 · official $18.97 (match) · 151 history records