Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:14:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C8 0xc8ef…9684 sports 95 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$150 (-16%) realized −$150 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate29%26W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$35
14 days−$31
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$160
other 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-32.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -38.9% -44.7% 25% 12% -43.0%
≤30d 25 -21.6% -29.0% 36% 24% -22.1%
≤90d 61 -20.1% -27.7% 34% 28% -40.2%
all 89 -25.5% -32.6% 29% 22% -36.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.6% 22% -36.9%
10% -39.1% 18% -42.9%
15% -44.9% 15% -48.4%
20% -50.3% 10% -53.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized−$150
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses26 / 63
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions6
Markets (closed)89 / 95
History coverage127d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Kyoji Horiguchi 42¢ 42¢ $105 $104 −$1 (-1%)
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Manel Kape 59¢ 58¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Conor McGregor 33¢ 32¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims) Mitch Raposo 35¢ 40¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+13%)
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Prelims) Gaston Bolaños 24¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Prelims) Shane Collins 62¢ 65¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 70¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Prelims) Leon Shahbazyan 27¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $33 −$16 -49%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $27 −$10 -36%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $21 −$9 -42%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $19 −$9 -47%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $5 $0 -3%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $6 −$2 -29%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $7 $0 +6%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $16 +$10 +64%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $34 +$7 +19%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $12 +$6 +46%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $16 −$5 -31%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $7 −$1 -21%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M Jun 07 $10 +$1 +5%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 07 $5 +$1 +14%
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $17 +$1 +8%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $2 +$1 +41%
UFC Fight Night: Priscila Cachoeira vs. Chelsea Chandler (Women's Bant Jun 06 $7 −$1 -9%
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P Jun 06 $3 −$2 -60%
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig Jun 06 $5 −$2 -41%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $45 −$8 -18%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh May 26 $1 −$1 -99%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $197 +$6 +3%
UFC Fight Night: Aoriqileng vs. Cody Haddon (Bantamweight, Prelims) May 23 $1 $0 -3%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, May 23 $1 $0 -2%
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Prelims) May 23 $1 $0 -5%
UFC Fight Night: Nicolle Caliari vs. Shauna Bannon (Women's Strawweigh May 17 $1 $0 +40%
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry May 17 $10 +$3 +26%
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano May 17 $7 −$6 -83%
MVP Fight Night: Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins May 13 $32 −$12 -38%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $24 −$22 -91%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $9 −$3 -29%
UFC Fight Night: Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Mai Apr 25 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Apr 25 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Julia Polastri vs. Talita Alencar (Women's Strawweigh Apr 25 $1 −$1 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Car Apr 20 $15 −$8 -56%
Boxing: Conor Benn vs. Regis Prograis Apr 15 $2 $0 +11%
UFC Fight Night: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal (Featherweight, M Apr 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Boxing: Tyson Fury vs. Arslanbek Makhmudov Apr 12 $1 $0 +18%
UFC 327: Charles Radtke vs. Francisco Prado (Welterweight, Early Preli Apr 12 $1 +$1 +57%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 07 $3 −$3 -99%
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca Apr 07 $21 −$21 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Gatto vs. Dione Barbosa (Women's Flyweight, P Apr 07 $2 $0 -10%
UFC Fight Night: Virna Jandiroba vs. Tabatha Ricci (Women's Strawweigh Apr 05 $1 +$1 +116%
UFC Fight Night: Alessandro Costa vs. Stewart Nicoll (Flyweight, Preli Apr 05 $1 $0 +26%
UFC Fight Night: Brendson Ribeiro vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light He Apr 05 $5 −$3 -57%
UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Main Ca Apr 05 $2 +$3 +152%
UFC Fight Night: Tresean Gore vs. Azamat Bekoev (Middleweight, Prelims Apr 05 $2 +$9 +461%
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car Apr 01 $31 −$26 -85%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Lopes vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, M Apr 01 $10 −$4 -41%
UFC Fight Night: Alexa Grasso vs. Maycee Barber (Women's Flyweight, Ma Mar 28 $1 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kyoji Horiguchi 42¢ $102 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kyoji Horiguchi 42¢ $5 3h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 59¢ $10 21h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Mitch Raposo 35¢ $2 2d
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre BUY Gaston Bolaños 24¢ $2 2d
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Pre BUY Leon Shahbazyan 27¢ $1 2d
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Shane Collins 62¢ $1 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 22¢ $6 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 100¢ $10 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $10 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Alex Pereira 51¢ $5 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 100¢ $13 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $5 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $5 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $10 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Josh Hokit 100¢ $5 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 92¢ $5 4d
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Over 52¢ $5 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $5 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Mauricio Ruffy 100¢ $2 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Alex Pereira 50¢ $5 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 82¢ $2 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Michael Chandler 18¢ $5 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Josh Hokit 80¢ $4 4d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 52¢ $5 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 75¢ $1 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $1 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $5 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $10 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 19¢ $5 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.63 · official $124.64 (match) · 332 history records