Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:20:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C8 0xc8f4…3adf crypto 617 markets active 2d ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d only
✗ bot/MM pace (247 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$19,936 (-23%) realized −$19,936 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate53%327W / 290L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day247.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,119
7 days−$5,765
14 days−$21,662
30 days−$21,430
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$21,430
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (247 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 201 +0.0% -9.5% 56% 55% -29.6%
≤30d 617 -7.6% -16.4% 53% 50% -31.9%
≤90d 617 -7.6% -16.4% 53% 50% -31.9%
all 617 -7.6% -16.4% 53% 50% -31.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover247.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 50% -31.9%
10% ← realistic here -24.4% 48% -38.4%
15% -31.7% 41% -44.4%
20% -38.4% 33% -49.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -12% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$153 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19,936
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses327 / 290
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)617 / 617
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$141
Trades / day247.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 617 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $280 −$280 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $1,056 −$1,056 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $1,915 −$1,915 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $134 +$73 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $140 +$60 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $140 −$140 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $250 +$301 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$20 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $23 +$27 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $48 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $43 +$20 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $22 +$19 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $93 +$90 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $43 +$44 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $47 +$46 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $91 −$91 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $171 +$175 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $46 +$50 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$23 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $47 +$46 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $33 +$36 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $23 +$23 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $22 +$26 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $23 +$17 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $91 +$85 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $207 −$207 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $460 +$355 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$23 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $53 +$45 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $175 −$175 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $350 +$197 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $8 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $45 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $7 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $9 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $36 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $14 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $6 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $14 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records