Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:27:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc8f6…a007 crypto 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (71 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$14 (+3%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate69%18W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day71.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% +$14
other 23% −$49
sports 12% +$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (71 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +6.0% -4.1% 69% 62% -7.3%
≤30d 26 +6.0% -4.1% 69% 62% -7.3%
≤90d 26 +6.0% -4.1% 69% 62% -7.3%
all 26 +6.0% -4.1% 69% 62% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover71.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.1% 62% -7.3%
10% ← realistic here -13.3% 54% -16.2%
15% -21.6% 50% -24.3%
20% -29.3% 27% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$14 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses18 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage1d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day71.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$6 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $35 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$5 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$8 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$6 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$6 +57%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $58 +$45 +77%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $110 −$49 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 72 history records