trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 88¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-8%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 13 | $13 | +$1 | +6% |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | Jun 13 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 13 | $32 | $0 | -0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 12 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Walmart buy TikTok? | Jun 27 | $9 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? | Jun 02 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Giants draft Travis Hunter? | Apr 22 | $1 | −$1 | -68% |
| Will the Giants draft Shedeur Sanders? | Apr 20 | $9 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Stephon Castle win NBA Rookie of the Year? | Apr 19 | $9 | $0 | +1% |
| Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Apr 18 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Apr 17 | $1 | $0 | -10% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 28 | $2 | $0 | -5% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +1.6% | -8.1% | 50% | 0% | -8.7% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +1.6% | -8.1% | 50% | 0% | -8.7% |
| ≤90d | 4 | +1.6% | -8.1% | 50% | 0% | -8.7% |
| all | 13 | -5.2% | -14.3% | 54% | 0% | -9.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.3% | 0% | -9.3% |
| 10% | -22.5% | 0% | -18.0% |
| 15% | -30.0% | 0% | -25.9% |
| 20% | -36.8% | 0% | -33.2% |