Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:12:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc8fb…ca80 politics 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%2W / 38L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$421per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$11
other 27% −$5
world 17% −$2
sports 6% −$2
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 40 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 40 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$957) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses2 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage80d
Avg bet$421
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $103 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $47 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 17 $60 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $957 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $24 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $74 $0 +0%
Will Databricks’ market cap be between $175B and $200B at market close Jun 14 $1,009 −$1 -0%
Will Databricks’ market cap be $250B or greater at market close on IPO Jun 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country? Jun 14 $944 −$1 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $1,035 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,071 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $955 −$1 -0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $980 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $47 $0 +0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $990 −$2 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $991 −$2 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $53 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $35 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $21 $0 -1%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 21 $24 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $962 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? May 20 $58 $0 -0%
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $934 $0 +0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 20 $907 −$1 -0%
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 19 $54 $0 -0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? May 19 $915 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $963 −$2 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 18 $32 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $1,003 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $953 −$1 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $79 $0 -0%
Will Lee Un-ju win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? Apr 07 $62 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 07 $29 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 03 $127 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 03 $25 $0 -0%
Will Karolína Muchová be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Apr 03 $27 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Mar 30 $183 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 30 $14 $0 -0%
Will UBS or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead under Mar 30 $28 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $102 1h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $90 2h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $47 2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $14 2h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $13 2h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 2h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $16 2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $30 3h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 2d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 2d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 2d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 2d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 2d
Will Databricks’ market cap be between $175B and $200B at market close SELL No 100¢ $1,008 3d
Will Databricks’ market cap be $250B or greater at market close on IPO SELL No 100¢ $25 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $8 3d
Will Databricks’ market cap be between $175B and $200B at market close BUY No 100¢ $982 3d
Will Databricks’ market cap be $250B or greater at market close on IPO BUY No 100¢ $25 3d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country? SELL No 100¢ $663 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $66 3d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country? SELL No 100¢ $280 3d
Will Databricks’ market cap be between $175B and $200B at market close BUY No 100¢ $27 3d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country? BUY No 100¢ $944 3d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $1,034 4d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $64 4d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 4d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $981 4d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 4d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $953 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 130 history records