Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:58:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C8 0xc8fd…6b3a politics 207 markets active 1h ago coverage 511d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9,645 (+12%) realized +$9,534 · open +$111
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%89W / 107L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$391per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$99est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$2,507now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$928
7 days+$771
14 days+$1,084
30 days−$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% +$7,373
other 27% +$504
world 16% −$623
sports 9% +$1,895
crypto 4% +$273
economics 3% −$501
culture 2% +$59
tech 1% +$212
finance 1% +$153
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +92.5% +74.2% 40% 40% +21.8%
≤30d 15 +34.4% +21.6% 27% 27% -11.2%
≤90d 56 +6.1% -4.0% 34% 32% -0.2%
all 196 +5.1% -4.9% 45% 42% +1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 42% +1.7%
10% -14.0% 34% -8.1%
15% -22.3% 30% -16.9%
20% -30.0% 22% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$288 vs −$154 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

511d coverage
Net worth$2,507
Realized+$9,534
Unrealized+$111
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses89 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$99
Open positions11
Markets (closed)196 / 207
History coverage511d
Avg bet$391
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 196 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Yes 52¢ 55¢ $520 $550 +$30 (+6%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? Yes 60¢ 66¢ $413 $454 +$41 (+10%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $323 $343 +$20 (+6%)
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? Yes 31¢ 26¢ $382 $320 −$62 (-16%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? No 59¢ 60¢ $236 $238 +$2 (+1%)
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Bosnia and Herzegovina 46¢ 46¢ $184 $186 +$2 (+1%)
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina governor race in 2026? Yes 7¢ 9¢ $120 $147 +$27 (+22%)
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $79 $130 +$50 (+63%)
Will the Democrats win the Oklahoma governor race in 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $71 $66 −$4 (-6%)
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $37 $45 +$8 (+20%)
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $111 +$489 +442%
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 23 $508 −$53 -10%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Jun 23 $1,035 −$91 -9%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $417 +$583 +140%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $161 −$158 -98%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $104 −$30 -29%
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? Jun 16 $153 −$134 -87%
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $254 −$38 -15%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $105 +$495 +474%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $272 +$37 +14%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 10 $155 −$18 -11%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $244 −$150 -62%
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? Jun 08 $406 −$119 -29%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $219 −$216 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 28 $694 −$687 -99%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO5) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 24 $50 −$50 -99%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 24 $229 +$271 +118%
Xi Jinping divorce before 2027? May 23 $29 −$16 -56%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 23 $87 −$82 -94%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $33 −$32 -97%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 23 $218 −$70 -32%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 23 $220 +$180 +82%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $120 +$207 +172%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $320 +$75 +23%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $173 +$69 +40%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $580 +$478 +82%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 19 $120 −$31 -26%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 19 $470 −$198 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 19 $102 −$96 -94%
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom May 19 $5 −$2 -43%
Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 17 $35 +$10 +28%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $451 −$335 -74%
Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $111 −$37 -33%
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry May 16 $278 −$273 -98%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their May 15 $120 +$280 +232%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 14 $234 +$266 +114%
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 13 $88 −$47 -53%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 12 $1,322 +$1,276 +96%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $195 +$805 +414%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 06 $823 +$401 +49%
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? May 04 $363 −$21 -6%
Will Trump say "NATO" during King Charles visit? May 01 $220 −$220 -100%
Will Trump say "Immigration" or "Immigrant" during King Charles visit? Apr 28 $330 −$330 -100%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $276 −$57 -21%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 15 $285 −$125 -44%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 15 $242 −$164 -68%
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $173 −$167 -96%
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats? Apr 12 $214 +$11 +5%
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Apr 10 $553 −$111 -20%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Apr 09 $147 −$98 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $95 1h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 1h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 1h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $69 1h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 46¢ $187 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 59¢ $239 4h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $195 4h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? BUY Yes 61¢ $93 4h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 4h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? BUY Yes 58¢ $89 4h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 32¢ $455 13h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 34¢ $508 23h
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House SELL Yes 42¢ $472 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 18¢ $111 29h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? BUY Yes 62¢ $104 29h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? BUY Yes 61¢ $93 29h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 29h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $417 38h
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House SELL Yes 42¢ $472 38h
Will the Democrats win the Oklahoma governor race in 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $161 4d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $73 7d
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $19 7d
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $68 7d
Will the Democrats win the Oklahoma governor race in 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 8d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 62¢ $308 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 35¢ $137 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 38¢ $155 15d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 7¢ $79 15d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 16¢ $161 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,507.11 · official $2,560.12 · 1101 history records