Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:27:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C8 0xc8fe…0851 politics 116 markets active 2h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$27 (-0%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate7%8W / 107L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$9
politics 38% −$10
sports 10% −$8
crypto 4% −$1
tech 3% −$1
economics 3% $0
world 2% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 84 -1.3% -10.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 115 -5.0% -14.0% 7% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 6% -9.7%
10% -22.3% 5% -18.3%
15% -29.8% 3% -26.2%
20% -36.7% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×10.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses8 / 107
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)115 / 116
History coverage122d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $35 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $22 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $44 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $36 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $37 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $28 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $24 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $56 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $365 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $427 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $25 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $220 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $216 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $202 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $32 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $210 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $366 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $150 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $163 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $173 $0 -0%
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 22 $204 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $374 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $391 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $181 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $175 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $212 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $171 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $181 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $177 −$1 -1%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $177 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 12 $153 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 11 $205 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $185 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $180 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $212 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $206 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? May 09 $27 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $185 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 24 $202 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $186 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $192 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $184 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $398 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $181 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $388 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $203 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $218 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $179 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 16 $178 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $29 1h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 3d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 5d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 5d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $18 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $18 6d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $36 6d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $36 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $37 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $37 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $28 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $28 12d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $24 12d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $24 12d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 12d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 13d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $22 15d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $22 15d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 16d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 16d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $34 16d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $34 17d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 18d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 19d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $25 19d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 19d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $34 20d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $34 21d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $19 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.99 · official $28.99 (match) · 314 history records