Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:16:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc908…54f7 crypto 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$20 (-4%) realized −$18 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate47%15W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$359now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$21
crypto 42% −$10
world 14% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-30.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -22.2% -29.6% 44% 39% -28.1%
≤30d 32 -23.6% -30.9% 47% 38% -22.5%
≤90d 32 -23.6% -30.9% 47% 38% -22.5%
all 32 -23.6% -30.9% 47% 38% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.9% 38% -22.5%
10% -37.5% 22% -29.9%
15% -43.5% 16% -36.7%
20% -49.1% 16% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$359
Realized−$18
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses15 / 17
Open positions6
Markets (closed)32 / 38
History coverage16d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $137 $138 +$1 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $87 $96 +$9 (+10%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $20 $51 +$31 (+154%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $69 $35 −$35 (-50%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $33 $32 −$1 (-4%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $15 $7 −$7 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $7 −$1 -19%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$7 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$7 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +10%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $96 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $35 5h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $11 34h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 38h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $6 38h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 41h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $34 41h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $23 41h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 43h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $11 2d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $71 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $358.88 · official $358.89 (match) · 91 history records