Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:55:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C9 0xc908…2f61 crypto 695 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,359 (-4%) realized −$6,100 · open −$259
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate59%405W / 287L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$256per market
Trades / day59.2pace
Fees−$754est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$405now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 40d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$6,596
sports 27% −$4,532
other 1% −$56
finance 0% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -11.2% -19.7% 54% 46% -16.3%
≤30d 398 -5.2% -14.3% 56% 50% -16.1%
≤90d 692 -4.0% -13.2% 59% 51% -14.8%
all 692 -4.0% -13.2% 59% 51% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 51% -14.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 39% -23.0%
15% -29.1% 25% -30.4%
20% -36.0% 14% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$138 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$405
Realized−$6,100
Unrealized−$259
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses405 / 287
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$754
Open positions3
Markets (closed)692 / 695
History coverage40d
Avg bet$256
Trades / day59.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 692 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies No 53¢ 46¢ $469 $404 −$65 (-14%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 15 $493 −$18 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $593 −$589 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $506 +$86 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $234 −$230 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $383 +$145 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $261 +$127 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $304 +$46 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $552 +$180 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $294 +$51 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $404 −$271 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $1,422 −$348 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $508 +$111 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $1,646 −$336 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $778 −$164 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $989 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $449 +$209 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $318 +$100 +31%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $504 +$406 +81%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $263 +$203 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $102 +$41 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $564 +$208 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $641 +$74 +12%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $488 −$165 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $407 +$95 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $372 +$117 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $277 +$96 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $133 −$55 -41%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $103 +$30 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $320 −$218 -68%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,958 −$892 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $2,976 −$428 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $577 −$577 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $1,312 −$254 -19%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $360 −$360 -100%
Will Fiji win on 2026-06-09? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $2,523 +$149 +6%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $1,323 −$315 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $611 −$586 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $618 +$108 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $1,101 +$238 +22%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,402 +$501 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $434 −$105 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $1,239 −$670 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $305 +$89 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $265 −$138 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $411 −$306 -74%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $579 +$364 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Phi BUY No 53¢ $1 32m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Phi BUY No 53¢ $474 33m
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 64¢ $475 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $593 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $593 41m
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 65¢ $493 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $506 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $234 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $102 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $388 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $102 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $103 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $349 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $732 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $161 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $404.52 · official $404.52 (match) · 2621 history records