Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:39:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc908…15a1 crypto 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$565 (-10%) realized −$565 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate25%17W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$434
7 days+$434
14 days+$167
30 days+$306
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$548
other 2% −$90
sports 2% −$98
politics 1% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-47.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +51.4% +37.0% 60% 60% +98.7%
≤30d 27 -13.6% -21.9% 33% 33% +1.2%
≤90d 69 -41.4% -47.0% 25% 22% -22.2%
all 69 -41.4% -47.0% 25% 22% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.0% 22% -22.2%
10% -52.1% 20% -29.7%
15% -56.7% 19% -36.5%
20% -61.0% 14% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -57% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$48 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$565
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses17 / 52
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)69 / 69
History coverage86d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 69 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $87 +$162 +187%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $30 +$15 +50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $157 +$346 +220%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $53 −$3 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $59 −$59 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $205 −$205 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $117 −$117 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $239 +$228 +96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $137 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $73 −$73 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $105 −$105 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $349 +$285 +82%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $154 −$76 -49%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $270 −$29 -11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $27 −$13 -49%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $90 +$90 +100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 31? May 30 $29 +$14 +47%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 30? May 30 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? May 29 $71 +$121 +170%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28? May 29 $59 −$59 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 27? May 27 $31 +$30 +96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 27? May 27 $33 −$2 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 26? May 26 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 24? May 25 $54 −$20 -38%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? May 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 23? May 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 23? May 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 13? May 13 $334 −$237 -71%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 13? May 12 $95 −$34 -36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 12? May 12 $74 −$30 -41%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 12? May 12 $254 +$148 +58%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 11? May 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Khamzat Chimaev win by KO or TKO? May 11 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the fight be won by submission? May 11 $98 −$98 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 10? May 11 $73 −$73 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? May 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 9? May 10 $125 −$125 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8? May 09 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 8? May 09 $275 +$20 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 7? May 07 $235 +$78 +33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 7? May 07 $104 −$104 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 6? May 06 $74 −$74 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 6? May 06 $141 −$11 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 06 $10 +$10 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? SELL Yes 55¢ $144 38m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 16¢ $45 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? SELL No 23¢ $45 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? BUY No 14¢ $30 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? BUY No 4¢ $39 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? SELL Yes 44¢ $461 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 8¢ $78 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 14¢ $27 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? SELL No 62¢ $105 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY No 22¢ $41 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? SELL No 8¢ $41 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY No 9¢ $52 26h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $50 7d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 18¢ $50 7d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 18¢ $53 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 44¢ $59 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? BUY No 34¢ $205 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? BUY No 12¢ $43 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 99¢ $248 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 39¢ $103 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? BUY No 14¢ $117 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? SELL No 58¢ $219 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? BUY No 33¢ $136 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? SELL No 17¢ $136 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? BUY No 15¢ $137 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? BUY No 13¢ $46 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? BUY No 32¢ $73 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? BUY No 38¢ $105 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? SELL No 97¢ $429 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? BUY No 44¢ $206 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 176 history records