Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:37:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc90d…9673 other 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$62 (-1%) realized +$67 · open −$129
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate52%34W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$570now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$142
7 days−$184
14 days−$81
30 days−$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$626
sports 20% +$335
tech 10% +$49
world 0% +$19
crypto 1% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +16.8% +5.7% 47% 42% -16.2%
≤30d 66 +12.4% +1.7% 52% 45% -11.2%
≤90d 66 +12.4% +1.7% 52% 45% -11.2%
all 66 +12.4% +1.7% 52% 45% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.7% 45% -11.2%
10% -8.1% 39% -19.7%
15% -17.0% 38% -27.5%
20% -25.1% 36% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$40 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$570
Realized+$67
Unrealized−$129
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses34 / 32
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions5
Markets (closed)66 / 71
History coverage12d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Yes 84¢ 66¢ $600 $474 −$126 (-21%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+23%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $7 +$36 +484%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $231 −$231 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -97%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 +$11 +109%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 +$16 +158%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 +$20 +197%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $953 +$55 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $3 +$8 +303%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $3 +$1 +25%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $5 +$4 +72%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $5 $0 +5%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$11 +105%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$14 +134%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$31 +307%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 +$15 +99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$14 +140%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$15 +152%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$7 +65%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $365 +$595 +163%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $601 −$601 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 +$13 +51%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $25 +$13 +52%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +20%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $534 +$66 +12%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $605 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $44 6h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 7h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 10¢ $50 10h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 20¢ $50 11h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 29¢ $51 12h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 40¢ $80 14h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 85¢ $21 22h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 40¢ $10 30h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 38¢ $10 30h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 44¢ $10 32h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 33¢ $10 38h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $953 42h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 12¢ $10 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 43¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? SELL Yes 29¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? SELL Yes 23¢ $8 2d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 3d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $10 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $570.20 · official $570.20 (match) · 179 history records