Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:10:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc919…70a2 crypto 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (105 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$55 (+4%) realized +$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate45%13W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day104.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 35% −$27
other 20% −$85
sports 16% +$75
politics 15% +$9
world 14% +$9
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (105 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -6.1% -15.0% 45% 38% -11.0%
≤30d 29 -6.1% -15.0% 45% 38% -11.0%
≤90d 29 -6.1% -15.0% 45% 38% -11.0%
all 29 -6.1% -15.0% 45% 38% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover104.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.0% 38% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 24% -19.5%
15% -30.6% 14% -27.3%
20% -37.4% 10% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
16.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$11 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses13 / 16
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage5d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day104.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $51 +$40 +79%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 21 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 21 $151 −$3 -2%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $253 −$86 -34%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $152 +$34 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? Jun 20 $3 $0 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Jun 20 $48 +$7 +14%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 23? Jun 20 $26 −$15 -57%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Jun 20 $48 +$11 +22%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 22? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -50%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 24? Jun 20 $1 $0 -25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? Jun 20 $32 +$5 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? Jun 20 $8 −$7 -85%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 20 $47 +$5 +10%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $29 $0 -1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 25? Jun 20 $1 $0 -39%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 21? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -89%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $3 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 26? Jun 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? Jun 20 $12 +$3 +26%
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Jun 20 $13 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $49 +$20 +40%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $44 +$10 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $71 +$15 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $68 −$59 -88%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $17 −$6 -34%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 19 $21 +$11 +52%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $99 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 79¢ $149 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 98¢ $0 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 82¢ $62 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 72¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 72¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 72¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 72¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 72¢ $9 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 72¢ $44 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 83¢ $13 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 83¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 83¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 83¢ $7 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 83¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 83¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 83¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 83¢ $11 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 83¢ $0 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 83¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 83¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 83¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 83¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 83¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 83¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 83¢ $3 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 83¢ $6 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 83¢ $3 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 71¢ $65 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 537 history records