Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:32:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc91a…70fe world 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized +$88 · open −$107
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate61%36W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$280now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$96
7 days+$139
14 days+$181
30 days+$147
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$94
other 28% −$343
politics 10% +$173
tech 6% +$237
sports 3% −$80
culture 1% −$63
economics 1% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +68.4% +52.4% 100% 67% +40.4%
≤30d 10 +26.7% +14.7% 80% 60% +7.6%
≤90d 45 -0.3% -9.8% 64% 60% -13.0%
all 59 +0.7% -8.9% 61% 58% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 58% -10.8%
10% -17.6% 51% -19.4%
15% -25.6% 32% -27.2%
20% -32.9% 12% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$99 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$280
Realized+$88
Unrealized−$107
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses36 / 23
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)59 / 62
History coverage144d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 59¢ 34¢ $206 $121 −$86 (-42%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $96 $90 −$6 (-6%)
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $84 $69 −$15 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 23 $60 +$96 +160%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $96 +$4 +4%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $96 +$39 +41%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $20 +$8 +37%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $84 +$7 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $62 +$28 +44%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 07 $80 +$44 +55%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 04 $99 −$99 -100%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? May 30 $75 −$5 -6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? May 30 $108 +$26 +24%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 20 $154 +$46 +30%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 06 $161 −$158 -98%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30? Apr 30 $170 −$170 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $255 $0 -0%
Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026? Apr 23 $50 −$50 -99%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Apr 23 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 22 $197 +$52 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 17 $100 −$38 -37%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 17 $140 −$124 -89%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $165 −$165 -100%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 17 $87 −$63 -72%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 17 $160 −$78 -48%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 15 $92 −$65 -71%
Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this e Apr 14 $228 −$228 -100%
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 13 $292 −$292 -100%
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur b Apr 13 $174 +$61 +35%
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? Apr 10 $679 +$119 +18%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? Apr 10 $172 +$35 +20%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, Apr 08 $259 −$10 -4%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026? Apr 08 $140 +$41 +29%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 08 $96 +$22 +23%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? Apr 08 $210 +$42 +20%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? Apr 08 $164 +$54 +33%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 07 $200 +$68 +34%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 07 $51 +$17 +33%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 07 $120 +$44 +37%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 07 $113 +$40 +35%
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by A Apr 07 $169 +$63 +38%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Apr 07 $115 +$43 +38%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30? Apr 06 $89 +$12 +14%
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? Mar 31 $225 +$216 +96%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Mar 30 $50 +$19 +38%
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026? Mar 30 $145 +$99 +68%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 30 $69 +$30 +43%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Mar 30 $194 +$63 +33%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 26 $178 +$68 +38%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 20 $106 +$56 +53%
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? Mar 16 $185 +$71 +38%
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? Mar 15 $118 +$60 +51%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 09 $182 +$112 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $96 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 78¢ $155 21h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 59¢ $206 21h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $84 44h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $100 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 29¢ $60 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 45¢ $135 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $96 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $28 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 45¢ $91 11d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $90 11d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $62 17d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $124 17d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $99 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 22d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $52 22d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $4 22d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $5 22d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $3 22d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $0 22d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $0 22d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $6 22d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $2 22d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $8 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 42¢ $84 24d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $70 24d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $134 24d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $21 25d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $45 25d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $279.72 · official $279.75 (match) · 197 history records