Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C9 0xc91d…aef2 crypto 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (176 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$29 (-1%) realized −$39 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate73%24W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day175.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days−$3
14 days−$26
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (176 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +1.4% -8.3% 68% 21% -9.7%
≤30d 33 +2.3% -7.5% 73% 21% -10.3%
≤90d 33 +2.3% -7.5% 73% 21% -10.3%
all 33 +2.3% -7.5% 73% 21% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover175.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.5% 21% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -16.3% 3% -18.9%
15% -24.4% 3% -26.8%
20% -31.8% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
20.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$17 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses24 / 9
Open positions5
Markets (closed)33 / 38
History coverage10d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day175.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? No 92¢ 98¢ $44 $47 +$3 (+7%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? No 70¢ 88¢ $32 $41 +$9 (+27%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Yes 95¢ 94¢ $39 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? No 41¢ 36¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-11%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? No 97¢ 100¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $62 +$5 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $61 +$26 +44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $390 −$13 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $65 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $65 +$9 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $36 +$2 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $146 −$12 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $48 +$4 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $373 −$49 -13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $46 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $206 +$44 +21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $15 −$11 -75%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $57 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $21 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $309 −$19 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $74 −$8 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $44 +$8 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $53 +$3 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $40 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $16 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $38 +$8 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $23 +$2 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $335 −$37 -11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $36 +$6 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $54 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $2 −$1 -40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $145 −$9 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $5 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $13 +$2 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $9 +$1 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $23 +$2 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $14 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 41¢ $2 25m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 41¢ $2 25m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 41¢ $2 25m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 41¢ $2 25m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 41¢ $2 25m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 41¢ $5 42m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL No 43¢ $0 49m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 43¢ $0 49m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 57¢ $3 49m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL No 42¢ $1 53m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 58¢ $6 54m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 55¢ $0 54m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 54m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL No 47¢ $5 54m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 54m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 60¢ $4 55m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 40¢ $2 55m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL No 41¢ $0 56m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL No 42¢ $0 56m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL No 43¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 60¢ $7 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 40¢ $4 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL No 35¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL No 35¢ $2 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL No 31¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 34¢ $2 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL No 35¢ $2 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL No 33¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 36¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.04 · official $147.34 (match) · 1787 history records