Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:25:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C9 0xc920…e442 other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,099 (+18%) realized +$820 · open +$279
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR82%break-even
Win rate82%9W / 2L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$504per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$779now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$489
7 days+$889
14 days+$1,051
30 days+$1,051
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$1,653
sports 32% +$674
crypto 17% −$997
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +82%
net ROI/market (all)+7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +29.1% +16.8% 89% 89% +6.1%
≤30d 11 +18.4% +7.2% 82% 82% +7.6%
≤90d 11 +18.4% +7.2% 82% 82% +7.6%
all 11 +18.4% +7.2% 82% 82% +7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.2% 82% +7.6%
10% -3.1% 82% -2.7%
15% -12.5% 36% -12.1%
20% -21.0% 18% -20.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$228 vs −$499 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.05 per $1 lost it wins $2.05
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$779
Realized+$820
Unrealized+$279
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses9 / 2
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage8d
Avg bet$504
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 74¢ $500 $779 +$279 (+56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $899 +$489 +54%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $606 +$293 +48%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $471 +$136 +29%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $364 +$107 +29%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $282 +$81 +29%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,005 −$992 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $406 +$462 +114%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $604 +$174 +29%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $500 +$138 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $403 +$167 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $406 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,388 47h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $899 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $899 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $606 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $607 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $471 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $470 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $364 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $363 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 77¢ $282 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 7¢ $13 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 82¢ $1,005 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $869 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $406 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $778 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 77¢ $604 5d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $638 5d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $500 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $571 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $403 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $779.34 · official $768.88 · 25 history records