Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:24:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc923…5f12 sports 88 markets active 2h ago coverage 573d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,146 (-24%) realized −$1,134 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%41W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days−$89
14 days−$68
30 days−$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$82
other 31% −$257
crypto 14% −$644
politics 4% −$117
economics 2% +$17
tech 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -8.5% -17.2% 52% 52% -17.0%
≤30d 24 -13.5% -21.7% 50% 50% -14.2%
≤90d 24 -13.5% -21.7% 50% 50% -14.2%
all 82 -10.1% -18.7% 50% 49% -31.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 49% -31.4%
10% -26.4% 44% -38.0%
15% -33.6% 40% -44.0%
20% -40.1% 38% -49.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$59 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

573d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized−$1,134
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses41 / 41
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)82 / 88
History coverage573d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $65 $64 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 48¢ 37¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 AND Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 AND W Jun 25 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $155 +$48 +31%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $30 +$66 +220%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $76 +$41 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $76 +$34 +46%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $66 −$60 -91%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $50 −$39 -78%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $50 +$22 +43%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $51 +$33 +65%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $66 −$49 -74%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $62 −$62 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $24 +$3 +12%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $50 +$17 +34%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $25 +$21 +82%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $39 −$38 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $182 +$99 +54%
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 23 $50 −$21 -42%
Backpack FDV above $400M one day after launch? Mar 23 $30 −$24 -80%
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? Mar 23 $7 −$6 -88%
Bad Bunny video becomes most viewed SB halftime on YouTube in 1st mont Feb 12 $10 +$2 +21%
Patriots vs. Broncos: O/U 42.5 Jan 25 $64 −$64 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Magic Jan 24 $60 −$60 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers Jan 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-8.5) Jan 24 $50 +$44 +88%
Pelicans vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 120.5 Jan 24 $50 +$29 +59%
Spread: Grizzlies (-5.5) Jan 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) Jan 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Clippers (-2.5) Jan 23 $5 +$6 +127%
Lakers vs. Clippers Jan 23 $20 +$20 +100%
Spread: Rockets (-2.5) Jan 23 $40 +$37 +92%
Spread: Nuggets (-5.5) Jan 23 $40 +$34 +85%
Rockets vs. 76ers: 1H O/U 107.5 Jan 23 $30 +$24 +81%
Spread: Pistons (-9.5) Jan 22 $50 +$50 +100%
Spread: Knicks (-11.5) Jan 22 $23 +$21 +92%
Spread: Lakers (-1.5) Jan 21 $20 +$16 +82%
Spread: Warriors (-5.5) Jan 21 $21 +$16 +75%
Suns vs. 76ers: 1H O/U 115.5 Jan 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Suns vs. 76ers: 1H Moneyline Jan 20 $25 −$25 -100%
O/U 48.5 Jan 20 $50 +$36 +72%
Miami vs. Indiana: O/U 47.5 Jan 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Rams vs. Bears: O/U 48.5 Jan 19 $52 +$56 +108%
Spread: Patriots (-3.5) Jan 18 $40 +$39 +98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $66 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND BUY 27¢ $51 8h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 14¢ $31 8h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY 31¢ $30 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $54 26h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Switzerland vs. C BUY 11¢ $21 27h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 AND Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 AND W BUY 48¢ $20 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 30h
Richard Ríos: 1+ goals AND Luis Suárez: 1+ assists AND Juan Fernando Q BUY 36¢ $5 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $76 46h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $110 46h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 6¢ $6 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 19¢ $11 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $66 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $50 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 100¢ $72 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $51 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 69¢ $50 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 15¢ $17 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 17¢ $17 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $66 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 50¢ $25 3d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $88 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.32 · official $103.32 (match) · 173 history records