Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:37:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C9 0xc926…2d51 crypto 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$60 (+18%) realized +$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate92%12W / 1L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)+6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +18.1% +6.9% 92% 69% +7.1%
≤30d 13 +18.1% +6.9% 92% 69% +7.1%
≤90d 13 +18.1% +6.9% 92% 69% +7.1%
all 13 +18.1% +6.9% 92% 69% +7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.9% 69% +7.1%
10% -3.4% 54% -3.1%
15% -12.7% 31% -12.5%
20% -21.3% 23% -21.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$25 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.43 per $1 lost it wins $3.43
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses12 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$9 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$14 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$15 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 25 history records