Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:29:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C9 0xc926…e004 crypto 641 markets active 0h ago coverage 237d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$561 (+2%) realized +$561 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate94%600W / 38L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$30
14 days+$7
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$464
sports 1% +$13
other 0% +$7
politics 0% −$1
weather 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -8.3% -17.1% 85% 7% -8.2%
≤30d 61 -7.9% -16.6% 84% 13% -8.3%
≤90d 182 -5.6% -14.6% 88% 9% -9.2%
all 638 +0.1% -9.4% 94% 12% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 12% -7.8%
10% -18.1% 6% -16.7%
15% -26.0% 3% -24.7%
20% -33.3% 2% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$22 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$561
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses600 / 38
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)638 / 641
History coverage237d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 638 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $22 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $51 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $90 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $80 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 54°F or higher on May 22? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump kiss by May 31? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 08 $21 +$21 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 08 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 06 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 06 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 06 $50 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $51 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $50 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $51 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $50 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.10 · official $2.10 (match) · 1399 history records