Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:42:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C9 0xc92a…169c crypto 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$80 (-2%) realized −$54 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%40W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$261now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$176
7 days−$73
14 days−$73
30 days−$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$251
crypto 24% −$20
other 20% +$155
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -32.6% -39.0% 43% 39% -12.1%
≤30d 28 -32.6% -39.0% 43% 39% -12.1%
≤90d 85 -5.0% -14.1% 47% 45% -12.1%
all 85 -5.0% -14.1% 47% 45% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 45% -12.1%
10% -22.3% 40% -20.5%
15% -29.8% 36% -28.2%
20% -36.7% 28% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$21 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$261
Realized−$54
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses40 / 45
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions5
Markets (closed)85 / 91
History coverage79d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Under 56¢ 80¢ $50 $71 +$21 (+42%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Under 81¢ 50¢ $80 $49 −$31 (-38%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $57 $44 −$14 (-24%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $251 +$125 +50%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $103 −$101 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 +$31 +101%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $101 +$38 +38%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 +$50 +50%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $136 +$99 +73%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $151 −$150 -99%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $101 +$69 +69%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $312 +$58 +18%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $51 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $82 +$17 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $98 +$72 +74%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $197 +$16 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $51 +$25 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $10 −$8 -78%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 03 $68 −$67 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 03 $90 −$86 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 03 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 03 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 03 $15 +$19 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 03 $30 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 03 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 03 $51 +$47 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 03 $10 +$13 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 03 $10 +$8 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 03 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 03 $6 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 03 $2 +$5 +237%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 03 $10 +$10 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 02 $20 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 02 $5 +$8 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 02 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 81¢ $80 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $51 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $51 45h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $51 45h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 21¢ $51 45h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $51 45h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND BUY 13¢ $21 45h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND BUY 13¢ $21 45h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $376 45h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $251 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 15¢ $1 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 15¢ $0 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $102 47h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $30 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $101 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 66¢ $101 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 57¢ $136 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 39¢ $51 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 67¢ $151 2d
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Germany 59¢ $101 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 63¢ $101 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $312 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $51 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Qatar 41¢ $49 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 41¢ $51 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $21 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $261.02 · official $261.23 (match) · 202 history records