Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:55:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc92a…c7ab other 91 markets active 2h ago coverage 665d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate1%1W / 90L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 94% −$16
other 3% −$1
sports 1% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
world 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 91 -1.5% -10.9% 1% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 1% -9.6%
10% -19.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

665d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)1%
Wins / losses1 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)91 / 91
History coverage665d
Avg bet$182
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 91 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $56 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 21 $56 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 14 $56 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 03 $56 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 16 $57 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $57 $0 +0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $57 $0 -0%
Will Iowa win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $57 $0 -1%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 16 $58 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 14 $58 $0 +0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $58 $0 +0%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 07 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $58 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 01 $58 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 07 $55 $0 -0%
Will Girona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 25 $55 $0 -0%
Will Bam Adebayo lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Real Sociedad win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Luca Doncic lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Lamar Jackson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will 'A Bar Song (Tipsy)' win Song of the Year? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trey Hendrickson win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Rudy Gobert lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Julius Randle lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Cole Palmer be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pompeo be a member of the Trump administration? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will 2024 be the hottest year on record? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Linea airdrop in 2024? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
US inauguration on January 20? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will stranded astronauts leave the ISS in 2024? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Eric Adams out as NYC mayor before 2025? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Circle IPO in 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Caleb Williams be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Scholz out as chancellor of Germany in 2024? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 19 $1 $0 -2%
Will Draymond Green win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Dec 19 $0 $0 -1%
Will Jay Clayton be Trump's Attorney General? Dec 19 $0 $0 -0%
Pudgy Penguins airdrop in 2024? Dec 19 $2 $0 +0%
Increase in ECB interest rates after 2024 December meeting? Dec 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Dec 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will Anthony Edwards win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer confirmed as Labor Secretary? Dec 09 $0 $0 -3%
Will Zaccharie Risacher win NBA Rookie of the Year? Dec 09 $0 $0 -3%
Will Gold close at $3,100-3,200 at the end of 2024? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 09 $0 $0 -4%
Will Brian Thomas Jr. win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Dec 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will Casey DeSantis be appointed as the next Florida senator? Dec 09 $1 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 19h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 15d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 15d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 28d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 29d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $56 35d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $56 36d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 41d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 42d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $56 46d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $56 47d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 64d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 64d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $57 68d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $57 68d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 82d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 83d
Will Iowa win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL No 99¢ $57 88d
Will Iowa win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 100¢ $57 88d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $57 93d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $58 94d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $58 95d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $58 95d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 97d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 97d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 100d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 101d
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $58 103d
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $58 104d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 229 history records