Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:58:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C9 0xc92c…6f15 sports 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$350 (-3%) realized −$407 · open +$57
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%41W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$81est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$917now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$756
7 days+$432
14 days+$568
30 days+$1,218
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% −$94
other 22% +$651
world 17% −$804
politics 12% −$150
tech 2% +$64
crypto 1% −$100
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -13.7% -21.9% 46% 46% +4.7%
≤30d 44 +1.8% -7.9% 55% 52% +11.1%
≤90d 80 -6.6% -15.5% 50% 48% -13.5%
all 85 -6.3% -15.2% 48% 45% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 45% -13.4%
10% -23.3% 44% -21.7%
15% -30.7% 42% -29.2%
20% -37.5% 35% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$93 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$917
Realized−$407
Unrealized+$57
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses41 / 44
Est. fees paid−$81
Open positions8
Markets (closed)85 / 93
History coverage116d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? No 71¢ 88¢ $200 $249 +$49 (+25%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Toronto Blue Jays 53¢ 52¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 56¢ 56¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $100 $80 −$20 (-20%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $50 $65 +$15 (+31%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Cleveland Guardians 45¢ 46¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $404 +$226 +56%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 +$56 +110%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $81 +$57 +70%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $203 +$148 +73%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$55 +55%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 +$34 +67%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 +$45 +90%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$4 -8%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $72 −$7 -9%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $203 +$155 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $152 +$90 +60%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 19 $203 −$200 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $152 −$150 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $203 +$222 +109%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$58 +57%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $101 +$63 +62%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 +$88 +172%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $600 +$204 +34%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +44%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $102 +$184 +180%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31? Jun 01 $400 +$17 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $200 +$149 +75%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $302 +$64 +21%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $152 +$107 +70%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros May 30 $101 +$84 +83%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? May 29 $40 $0 -1%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? May 29 $41 −$40 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 29 $101 −$100 -99%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $101 +$74 +73%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026? May 21 $1,050 −$1,050 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Colum May 20 $303 −$300 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 20 $101 +$91 +90%
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 18 $101 +$68 +67%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shenzhen Leopards May 17 $101 +$42 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Cleveland Guardians 45¢ $61 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 56¢ $101 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Toronto Blue Jays 53¢ $152 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $47 23h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $65 23h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 58¢ $81 23h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 57¢ $101 23h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 57¢ $203 23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $202 23h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 53¢ $203 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $25 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $152 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $20 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $203 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $51 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $203 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $51 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $51 3d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $51 3d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $51 3d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $72 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $917.48 · official $917.48 (match) · 735 history records