Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:28:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C9 0xc92c…0bdd other 79 markets active 0h ago coverage 564d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$60 (+0%) realized +$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate19%15W / 62L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$266per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$5
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 67% −$14
other 18% −$1
politics 12% −$4
sports 2% +$77
crypto 1% +$1
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 23 +3.0% -6.8% 9% 4% -9.2%
≤90d 62 -1.3% -10.7% 15% 10% -9.4%
all 77 +2.1% -7.6% 19% 12% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 12% -9.3%
10% -16.4% 12% -18.0%
15% -24.5% 10% -25.9%
20% -31.9% 10% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×6.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

564d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized+$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses15 / 62
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)77 / 79
History coverage564d
Avg bet$266
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $94 $95 +$0 (+0%)
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 29 $27 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $7 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $18 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $34 $0 -0%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 21 $7 +$5 +73%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $18 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $19 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $24 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $27 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $21 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $30 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $19 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $29 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $28 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $173 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $33 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $29 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 02 $26 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 02 $64 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $166 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $30 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $184 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 24 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 23 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 13 $142 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $139 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $150 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $152 $0 -0%
Will Jack Draper win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 02 $138 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $295 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $144 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $146 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 01 $137 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $144 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $285 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 25 $144 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 25 $144 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 25 $143 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $424 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 23 $298 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $140 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $143 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $141 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $144 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $149 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $147 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $155 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 14 $143 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 0m
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $6 2d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $6 2d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 4d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 4d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 6d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 6d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 7d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 7d
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 57¢ $7 8d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 9d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $18 10d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $18 10d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $19 11d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 11d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 12d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 12d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 12d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $94 13d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $21 14d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 14d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 16d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 17d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $19 18d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $19 18d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $29 20d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $29 20d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.37 · official $161.46 · 245 history records